AFC East Win Totals and Our Picks
- JP Sweeney
- Aug 20, 2024
- 11 min read
Updated: Jan 9
We are teeming with excitement that the Kick Off game is 2 weeks away! What better way to going to jump into our AFC Win Totals and which ones we're going to be investing in. We'll break down each division in the AFC using our analytics, formulas, and sources we're all familiar with...oh, and we'll sprinkle in some of the picks our favorite pundits like / dislike.
The analysis, opinions, and selections are for entertainment purposes only and are not recommendations and not guaranteed. Odds are from BetMGM. As always best of luck! Let's "get on with the chlorophyll."
AFC East
We're going to start out in the AFC East. Arguably one of the hardest divisions to handicap based off of last year's results. Obviously, the biggest story heading into this season is the return of Aaron Rogers from the infamous Achilles tear 4 plays into his stint with the Jets. We'll look to the future [schedule] instead of the past for Big Green and see if we can't land on side. The Bills enter the 2024 campaign as reigning division champs for the 4th time but, this year... is their receiver room really headed by 2 TEs?? We'll look at what weapons Josh has on the edges and whether we think the Bills can "circle the wagons." The Dolphins put up an amazing offensive performance last season, on the ground and in the air. Will the offense stay "healthy enough" to contend for top spot in the East? Finally, we'll set the table with Mayo and his 1st season in New England. With such low expectations in the desert; can we help spread some love on a rebuilding dynasty?
Buffalo Bills 10.5 | over +125, under -150
The Bills lose Diggs and Davis and while this appears to be significant in the down field passing game, Josh is still Josh, and the drafting of Keon Coleman and another year of Kahlil Shakir in the system of Joe Brady, I think we see Josh work these guys in seamlessly. Of course, Josh still has access to two of the better TEs in the league in last emerging TE superstar Dalton Kincaid and years' prior TE star, Dawson Knox. We like both of these fellas for fantasy this year. They lose Jordan Poyer to Dolphins [in the division, yikes] on the defensive side and that just adds to the already existing questions on that side of the ball. The secondary is not what it used to be and we will see if the vets in the middle of that defense (Von Miller, Matt Milano) can stay healthy. If they can and the secondary outperforms our expectations this could be a formidable unit.
The Bills were the 4th best scoring defense in 2023 allowing 18.5 pts/game. If they can just match that even with a little regression we believe that the 6th best scoring offense can win them the game scoring almost 27 points per game (26.5). That Bills offense was 8th in overall passing last year, some key stats we're looking at based on their schedule and simulated wins are: opposition defensive pts/gm and yds/gm. The Bills averaged 374.5 yds/gm in 2023 and we believe Josh and the boys on offensive can match if not surpass that total this season. Let's look at some of the schedule where we think they hit their averages in points (pts) and yards (yds), which on simulation lead to wins. Here's a look at our aforementioned key stats in 2023 for the Bills: 24.4 pts/gm, 257.25 pass yds/gm, 115.7 rush yds/gm, totaling 372+ yds/gm of offense on the road / 28.3 pts/gm, 232.8 pass yds/gm, 141.5 rush yds/gm, totaling 373+ yds/gm of offense at home.
Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)
Wins
WK 1 - ARI: gave up 24.1 pts/gm 344.4 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: BUF 27 - ARI 23 (+6.5) o47.5
WK 3 - JAX: gave up 23.1 pts/gm, 342.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: BUF 26 - JAX 24
BUF loses WK 5 to JAX in London in 2023 | BUF 20 - JAX 25
WK 7 - TEN: gave up 24.1 pts/gm, 356.7yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: BUF 33 - TEN 17
WK 8 - @SEA: gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 370.0 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: BUF 26 - SEA 20
WK 9 - MIA: gave up 29.0 pts/gm, 340.1 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: BUF 34 - MIA 26
3-NOV, could be cold... should be enough tape on Dolphins to try and match up
MIA only scored 23.2 pts/gm while giving up 26.2 from November on in 2023
WK 10 - @IND: gave up 25.4 pts/gm, 352.6 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: BUF 31 - IND 25
Our simulations have the over / under set at 48.5 and the majority of simulations get to this number and go over we will watch for the early over/ under
WK 13 - SF: held opp. to 16.1 pts/gm, 316.2 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: BUF 24 - SF 23
Bills have not lost coming off a BYE WK with Josh Allen
This game is after WK 12 BYE for BUF
SF will have just come off a bruising game in GB
WK 16 - NE: gave up 22.25 pts/gm, 290.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: BUF 20 - NE 13
Almost ended as a Toss-Up game but Buffalo will likely need to end strong and win every game to hold onto the Division crown
NE may be playing for a draft position
Losses
WK 4 - @BAL: held opp. to 17.0 pts/gm, 303.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: BUF 19 - BAL 27
WK 6 - @NYJ: held opp. to 19.5 pts/gm, 286.7 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: BUF 23 - NYJ 24
should be a close game but we think NYJ wins with the final possession
WK 15 - @DET: gave up 21.9 pts/gm, 335.4 yds/gm iat home n 2023, including the playoffs | Projection: BUF 23 - DET 28
Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)
WK 2 - @MIA: held opp.17.3 pts/gm, 306.5 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 5 - @HOU: gave up 19.7 pts/gm , 331.5 yds/gm at home, including Divisional game vs CLE in
2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 11 - KC: held opp. to 18.0 pts/gm, 317.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 14 - @LAR: gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 339.75 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 17 - NYJ: held opp. to 22.4 pts/gm, 298.5 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 18 - @NE: gave up 20.8 pts/gm, 311.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
Our Win Total Pick: 9.5, OVER -160
We will likely play this o9.5 in a parlay to increase its value. Watch for our recap a few days before the season which will list our entire portfolio going into the season.
Miami Dolphins 9.5 | over -135, under +110
Can the 'Fish climb the AFC East mountain this year? If not, will McDaniel's seat become sweaty? Can the agile, frenetic, speedy offense stay healthy? They finished 11-6 in 2023 finishing just behind the Bills in tie-breakers. Both teams are at a win total of 9.5. The Dolphins lost some studs on the defensive side of the ball, DT Christian Wilkins (to Raiders), OL Robert Hunt (to Panthers), and DB Xavien Howard (Free Agent). These are massive losses to that defense but they add, Shaq Barrett, Jordan Poyer and a handful of other vets. We're still bullish on the 'Fins to win games solely because of their offense!
As mentioned above, the Dolphins were an electric offense in 2023. They were the 1st ranked passing offense and 6th in rushing offense. We cannot find a reason that doesn’t project them to be in similar spots in 2024. Miami averaged 421.3 yds/gm at home while scoring 31.8 pts/gm. We have simulated and projected the 'Fins to score, score, score at home. Dolphins still scored 26.1 pts/gm, averaging 366.0 yds on the road last year.
Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)
Wins
WK 1 - JAX: gave up 23.1 pts/gm, 342.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: MIA 34 (-3.5) - JAX 23 o49
WK 3 - @SEA: gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 370.0 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: MIA 24 - SEA 22
WK 4 - TEN: gave up 24.1 pts/gm, 356.7yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: MIA 36 - TEN 17
MIA 27 - TEN 28 last year @TEN WK 14
MIA Def absolutely sucked in this game giving up 403 yds, 320 through the air...
our simulation says MIA steps on the throat here at Hard Rock Stadium and pays back the Titans from last year
WK 5 - @NE: gave up 20.8 pts/gm, 311.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: MIA 23 - NE 14
WK 7 - @IND: gave up 25.4 pts/gm, 352.6 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: MIA 28 - IND 26
We will watch for the over in this game
WK 8 - ARI: gave up 24.1 pts/gm 344.4 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: MIA 26 - ARI 19
WK 11 - LV: gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 362.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: MIA 27 - LV 23
WK 12 - NE: gave up 22.25 pts/gm, 290.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: MIA 28 - NE 16
Losses
WK 9 - @BUF: held opp. to 17.0 pts/gm, 305.0 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: MIA 22 - BUF 36
WK 4 last year BUF beat the brakes off MIA hanging 48 on them
this year it's later, colder, and BUF should be in form
our simulation has another blowout for the Bills in Orchard Park
WK 10 - @LAR: gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 339.75 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: MIA 21 - LAR 23
MIA is 0-3 west of the Mississippi River WK 10 and beyond
MIA gave up 29.4 pts/gm on the road last year
this is indoors which is scary for a fast offense
our simulation has the Rams eking out a win
WK 13 - @GB: gave up 20.0 pts/gm, 320.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: MIA 23 - GB 25
Dolphins and cold weather, short week playing on a Thurs. sandwiched between two home games vs NE, WK 12 and NYJ, WK 14.
MIA Def gave up 29.4 pts/gm on the road
WK 17 - @CLE: held opp. to 13.9 pts/gm, 215.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: MIA 17 - CLE 21
could be a rest situation for the Dolphins and CLE could be battling for Wild Card spot
Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)
WK 2 - BUF: gave up 21.0 pts/gm, 319.0 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A (but we already like the over)
WK 14 - NYJ: held opp. to 22.4 pts/gm, 298.5 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 15 - @HOU: gave up 19.7 pts/gm , 331.5 yds/gm at home, including Divisional gave vs CLE in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 16 - SF: held opp. to 16.1 pts/gm, 316.2 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 18 - @NYJ: held opp. to 19.5 pts/gm, 286.7 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
Our Win Total Pick: 9.5; OVER -135
We will be playing this both straight and in a two or three leg win total parlay. Stay tuned for the official plays
New England Patriots 4.5 | over -150, under +120
It was a toss up on this total and we weren't going to touch it... then, Judon gets traded to Atlanta and now we are not in any position to mess with this total or even anything with Patriots!
Play this team and any of the simulations are your own risk!
Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)
Wins
WK 9 - @TEN: held opp. to 19.3 pts/gm, 315.9 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NE 20 - TEN 17
Losses
WK 1 - @CIN: held opp. to 19.3 pts/gm, 368.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NE 16 - CIN 27
WK 3 - @NYJ: held opp. to 19.5 pts/gm, 286.7 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NE 13 - NYJ 21
WK 4 - @SF: held opp. to 20.5 pts/gm, 309.3 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NE 10 - SF 31
WK 5 - MIA: gave up 29.0 pts/gm, 340.1 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NE 14 - MIA 24
WK 6 - HOU: gave up 22.67 pts/gm, 331.4 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NE 20 - HOU 33
WK 7 - JAX (in London): gave up 23.12 pts/gm, 342.34 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NE 13 - JAX 23
JAX 2-0 in London in 2023; 13.5 pts/gm, 337.5 yds/gm in London in 2023
WK 8 - NYJ: held opp. to 22.4 pts/gm, 298.5 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NE 17 - NYJ 20
WK 11 - LAR: gave up 23.8 pts/gm, 336.0 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NE 16 - LAR 23
WK 12 - @MIA: held opp.17.3 pts/gm, 306.5 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NE 20 - MIA 34
Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)
WK 2 - SEA: gave up 23.4 pts/gm, 372.5 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 10 - @CHI: held opp. to19.9 pts/gm, 273.5 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 13 - IND: gave up 22.4 pts/gm, 346.6 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 15 - @ARI (NE coming off BYE): gave up 29.75 pts/gm, 368.4 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 16 - @BUF: held opp. to 17.0 pts/gm, 305.0 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 17 - LAC: gave up 23.75 pts/gm, 364.25 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 18 - BUF: gave up 21.0 pts/gm, 319.0 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
Our Win Total Pick: SPEND YOUR MONEY ELSEWHERE!
New York Jets 9.5 | over -150, under +125
This is the hardest team to handicap in the AFC East. Since Rodgers missed the entire season and can't use the fill-in QBs as any sort of benchmark.
We are just going to rely on our simulator to steer our direction and well, you can follow along just as we said for the Patriots. Invest at your own risk!
Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)
Wins
WK 2 - @TEN: held opp. to 19.3 pts/gm, 315.9 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NYJ 24 - TEN 13
WK 3 - NE: gave up 22.25 pts/gm, 290.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NYJ 21 - NE 13
WK 4 - DEN: gave up 29.6 pts/gm, 424.75 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NYJ 27 - DEN 13
WK 5 - @MIN (in London): gave up 22.4 pts/gm, 346.6 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NYJ 31 - MIN 20
MIN is 3-0 in London
MIN is not the same team that they've played with in London
WK 6 - BUF: gave up 21.0 pts/gm, 319.0 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NYJ 24 - BUF 23
WK 7 - @PIT: held opp. to 19.2 pts/gm, 355.89 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NYJ 27 - PIT 13
WK 8 - @NE: gave up 20.8 pts/gm, 311.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NYJ 20 - NE 17
WK 10 - @ARI: gave up 29.75 pts/gm, 368.4 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NYJ 33 - ARI 26
WK 11 - IND: gave up 22.4 pts/gm, 346.6 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NYJ 29 - IND 24
WK 13 - SEA: gave up 23.4 pts/gm, 372.5 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NYJ 27 - SEA 20
Losses
WK 1 - @SF: held opp. to 20.5 pts/gm, 309.3 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NYJ 21 - SF 30
Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)
WK 9 - HOU: gave up 22.67 pts/gm, 331.4 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 14 - @MIA: held opp.17.3 pts/gm, 306.5 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 15 - @JAX: gave up 20.67 pts/gm, 342.3 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 16 - LAR: gave up 23.8 pts/gm, 336.0 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 17 - @BUF: held opp. to 17.0 pts/gm, 305.0 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 18 - MIA: gave up 29.0 pts/gm, 340.1 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
Our Win Total Pick: 9.5; OVER -150
We simulated and found 10 wins with a handful of toss-ups. It seems as though the schedule makers wanted AA-ron's return to be pretty favorable.
We will likely play this in a two or three leg parlay but, as stated before check back the first week of SEP to see our official plays!
That is our AFC round up for win totals we'll be back for more so check us out!!
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