AFC North Win Totals
- JP Sweeney
- Sep 10, 2024
- 16 min read
Updated: Jan 9
AFC North
The 2024 AFC North is shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL, with each team poised to make a strong run for the playoffs. The Bengals, led by a 'healthy' Joe Burrow, are aiming to continue their dominance after back-to-back division titles in 2021 and 2022. With key players like Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins returning but both looking for new deals, they remain the favorites, despite offseason losses like offensive coordinator Brian Callahan. The Bengals’ success will heavily depend on keeping their core healthy throughout the season.
The Baltimore Ravens enter 2024 looking to build on their 2023 success, where Lamar Jackson delivered an MVP-caliber performance. The Ravens' aggressive offseason moves, including signing Derrick Henry and reinforcing their offensive line, position them as strong contenders. However, losing defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald could hurt the Ravens' historically strong defense, and they'll need Jackson to stay healthy to outpace their divisional rivals.
For the Cleveland Browns, the 2024 season hinges on the performance of Deshaun Watson. After a tumultuous 2023, Cleveland is banking on Watson improving behind a strong defense that ranked second in DVOA last season. The addition of receiver Jerry Jeudy should help, but Watson must elevate his play for the Browns to compete with the AFC North’s elite teams.
The Pittsburgh Steelers remain a model of consistency under Mike Tomlin, who has never had a losing season in his 17-year tenure. However, questions at quarterback remain after the departure of Mitch Trubisky and the acquisition of Justin Fields. Pittsburgh will rely heavily on its defense and the rushing duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, but unless Fields exceeds expectations, the Steelers might find themselves struggling in such a tough division.
All of this and more, as we head north in the AFC!
Baltimore Ravens 10.5 | over -120, under +100
As the Baltimore Ravens enter the 2024 season, expectations are high after a strong 2023 campaign that saw them reach the AFC Championship Game. With Lamar Jackson back at quarterback and a bolstered offense featuring key additions like Derrick Henry, the Ravens are positioned as a top contender in the AFC. Offensively, the team will continue to lean on its formidable ground attack, with Jackson’s dual-threat ability and Henry’s power running leading the way. Wide receiver Zay Flowers is also expected to build on his strong rookie season and emerge as a key contributor in the passing game.
Defensively, while the Ravens face challenges following the departure of coordinator Mike Macdonald, they remain strong with a deep roster. Standouts like linebacker Roquan Smith and safety Kyle Hamilton are expected to lead a unit that dominated in 2023. However, replicating last year’s historic success—60 sacks and 31 takeaways—might be difficult, especially with a tough schedule that includes fierce AFC North competition and matchups against top offenses.
Many analysts see them as capable of reaching the AFC Championship again, although the Kansas City Chiefs remain a significant hurdle. Anything less than a Super Bowl appearance would be a disappointment for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, and they are widely viewed as one of the top contenders in the AFC in 2024.
Where do we see them finishing? Let's head for some crab cakes and Po-etry and see...
Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)
Wins
WK 2 - LV: gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 362.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: BAL 31 - LV 17
BAL held opp. to 17 pts/gm, 303.1 yds/gm at home in 2023
BAL scored 30.09 pts /gm, 382.7 yds /gm in at home 2023
LV scored 15.37 pts /gm, 253.5 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 6 - WSH: gave up 27.3 pts/gm 405 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: BAL 38 - WSH 20
WSH avg 22.3pts/gm on the road in 2023
BAL scored 30.09 pts /gm, 382.7 yds /gm in at home 2023
WK 7 - @TB: held opp. to 18.875 pts/gm, 321 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: BAL 26 - TB 17
TB scored 19.2 pts /gm, 329.2 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 9 - DEN: held opp. to 17 pts/gm, 303.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: BAL 28 - DEN 15
BAL scored 30.09 pts /gm, 382.7 yds /gm in at home 2023
Denver gave up 29.6 pts/gm, 424.75 yds/gm on the road in 2023
Denver scored 19.5 pts /gm, 293.5 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 10 - CIN: gave up 26.5 pts/gm, 381.875 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: BAL 30 - CIN 24
CIN scored 20.4 pts /gm, 315.875 yds /gm on the road in 2023
BAL held opp. to 17 pts/gm, 303.1 yds/gm at home in 2023
WK 11 - @PIT: gave up 23.4 pts/gm, 355.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: BAL 26 - PIT 13
PIT was 2-0 against BAL in 2023
this will not continue in 2024
WK 12 - @LAC: gave up 23.1 pts/gm, 361.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: BAL 33 - LAC 16
LAC scored 21.5 pts /gm, 330.1 yds /gm, at home in 2023
BAL held opp. to 15 pts/gm, 290.12 yds/gm on the road in 2023
WK 15 - @NYG: gave up 18.625 pts/gm, 295.7 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: BAL 43 - NYG 10
NYG scored 14.125 pts /gm, 295 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 16 - PIT: gave up 23.1 pts/gm, 361.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: BAL 20 - PIT 10
Losses
WK 1 - @KC: held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 271.5 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: BAL 22 - KC 24
KC scored 23.1 pts /gm, 368.3 yds /gm at home in 2023
BAL scored 24.5 pts /gm, 346.75 yds /gm, on the road in 2023
KC def. BAL 17-10 in the AFC Championship in 2023
Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)
WK 3 - @DAL: help opp. to 19.4 pts/gm, 317.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
DAL scored 36.77 pts /gm, 435.11 yds /gm at home in 2023
This is a game of the week, maybe game of the year candidate, really tough to pick this early
WK 4 - BUF: gave up 21.0 pts/gm, 319.0 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
BUF scored 24.375 pts /gm, 319 yds /gm on the road in 2023
BAL scored 30.9 pts /gm, 382.72 yds /gm at home in 2023
will be similar to WK 3
too early to call
WK 5 - @CIN: held opp. to 19.1 pts /gm, 368.1 yds /gm, at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
CIN scored 23.7 pts /gm, 321.67 yds /gm at home in 2023
BAL held opp. to 15 pts/gm, 290.12 yds/gm on the road in 2023
BAL scored 24.5 pts /gm, 346.75 yds /gm, on the road in 2023
CIN 0-2 against BAL in 2023
WK 8 - @CLE: held opp. to 13.8 pts /gm, 215.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
CLE scored 22.3 pts /gm, 330 yds /gm at home in 2023
CLE 1-1 vs BAL in 2023
CLE won WK 10, 33-31
WK 13 - PHI: gave up 22.5 pts/gm, 338.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
PHI scored 19.5 pts /gm, 335.7 yds /gm on the road in 2023
potential Super Bowl match up
WK 17 - @HOU: held opp. to 19.7 pts/gm, 331.5 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
HOU scored 26.6 pts /gm, 367.5 yds /gm at home in 2023
late season game is a toss up
WK 18 - CLE: gave up 31.3 pts/gm, 334 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
CLE scored 23.2 pts /gm, 340.4 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 14 - Bye
Our Win Total Pick: 10.5, OVER -120
Cincinnati Bengals 10.5 | over -120, under +100
The Cincinnati Bengals are poised for a strong 2024 season following a challenging 2023, where they narrowly missed the playoffs after Joe Burrow's injury. With Burrow healthy again and backed by a reinforced offensive line, the Bengals are expected to return to Super Bowl contention. Key additions like Orlando Brown Jr. and rookie lineman Amarius Mims improve protection for Burrow, while Ja’Marr Chase became the NFL's highest-paid receiver, solidifying the offensive unit's power.
On defense, cornerback Dax Hill is emerging as a key player, and rookie Kris Jenkins has a chance to compete for Defensive Rookie of the Year with his interior pass-rushing ability. Despite the Baltimore Ravens being favored to win the AFC North, the Bengals are expected to challenge for the division title, especially if they capitalize on a favorable early schedule. With a healthy roster, the Bengals have a real shot at another deep playoff run in 2024.
Let's find our really 'Who Dey are'?
Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)
Wins
WK 1 - NE: gave up 22.25 pts/gm, 290.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CIN 33 - NE 17
NE scored 15.875 pts/gm on the road in 2023
WK 3 - WSH: gave up 27.3 pts/gm 405 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CIN 27 - WSH 22
WSH avg 22.3pts/gm on the road in 2023
WK 4 - @CAR: gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 268.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: CIN 31 - CAR 20
CAR scored 13.75 pts /gm, 254.125 yds /gm at home in 2023
CIN scored 20.4 pts /gm, 315.875 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 6 - @NYG: gave up 18.625 pts/gm, 295.7 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CIN 24 - NYG16
NYG scored 14.125 pts /gm, 295 yds /gm at home in 2023
CIN scored 20.4 pts /gm, 315.875 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 8 - PHI: gave up 22.5 pts/gm, 338.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CIN 27 - PHI 26
PHI scored 19.5 pts /gm, 335.7 yds /gm on the road in 2023
CIN scored 23.7 pts /gm, 321.67 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 9 - LV: gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 362.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CIN 27 - LV 17
LV scored 15.37 pts /gm, 253.5 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 11 - @LAC: gave up 23.1 pts/gm, 361.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: CIN 24 - LAC 18
CIN scored 20.4 pts /gm, 315.875 yds /gm on the road in 2023
LAC scored 21.5 pts /gm, 330.1 yds /gm, at home in 2023
WK 13 - PIT: gave up 20.2 pts/gm, 331.2 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CIN 23 - PIT 17
Steelers averaged 17.3 pts /gm on the road in 2023
CIN scored 23.7 pts /gm, 321.67 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 15 - @TEN: held opp. to 19.3 pts /gm, 315.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: CIN 29 - TEN 17
TEN scored 22.6 pts /gm, 312.44 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 16 - CLE: gave up 23.75 pts/gm, 364.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CIN 27 - CLE 23
CLE gave up 31.3 pts/gm, 334 yds/gm on the road in 2023
WK 17 - DEN: gave up 29.6 pts/gm, 424.75 yds/gm on the road in 2023| Projection: CIN 31 - DEN 22
DEN scored 19.5 pts /gm, 293.5 yds /gm on the road in 2023
CIN held opp. to 19.1 pts /gm, 368.1 yds /gm, at home in 2023
Losses
WK 7 - @CLE: held opp. to 13.8 pts /gm, 215.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: CIN 20 - CLE 24
CLE scored 22.3 pts /gm, 330 yds /gm at home in 2023
CIN scored 20.4 pts /gm, 315.875 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 10 - @BAL: held opp. to 17 pts/gm, 303.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: BAL 30 - CIN 24
CIN scored 20.4 pts /gm, 315.875 yds /gm on the road in 2023
gave up 26.5 pts/gm, 381.875 yds/gm on the road in 2023
0-2 vs BAL last season
Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)
WK 2 - @KC: held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 271.5 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
CIN scored 20.4 pts /gm, 315.875 yds /gm on the road in 2023
CIN 3-5 on the road in 2023
3 of those losses came without Burrow
CIN has been the best to play in KC as of late
WK 5 - BAL: held opp. to 15 pts/gm, 290.12 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
BAL scored 24.5 pts /gm, 346.75 yds /gm, on the road in 2023
WK 14 - @DAL: help opp. to 19.4 pts/gm, 317.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
DAL scored 36.77 pts /gm, 435.11 yds /gm at home in 2023
This could be a potential Super Bowl match up
WK 18 - @PIT: gave up 19.2 pts /gm, at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
Dependent on seeding
WK 12 - Bye
Our Win Total Pick: 10.5, OVER -120
Cleveland Browns 8.5 | over -140, under +115
Heading into the 2024 season, the Cleveland Browns are poised for a pivotal year, filled with both high expectations and significant challenges. After an 11-win season in 2023, the Browns have reinforced their roster with key additions like wide receiver Jerry Jeudy and defensive players such as Dalvin Tomlinson and Za'Darius Smith. Deshaun Watson, who struggled through injuries and legal troubles over the past two seasons, is now fully healthy, and the Browns expect him to return to near-elite form, potentially delivering his best season since 2020.
The strength of Cleveland's 2024 campaign, however, is likely to lie in its defense. Led by Myles Garrett, the Browns' defensive unit remains one of the most formidable in the NFL. Their secondary, featuring standout talents like Denzel Ward and Juan Thornhill, is considered among the best in the league. Paired with Garrett's relentless pass-rushing abilities, this defense could once again rank near the top in both passing and rushing defense categories, following a strong 2023 performance.
While the Browns' offense remains a work in progress with Watson at the helm, the team faces a brutal schedule within the fiercely competitive AFC North. However, the path to postseason success is far from guaranteed, as the team will have to contend with division rivals like the Bengals and Ravens, both of whom are also aiming for deep playoff runs (Dawg Pound Daily) (ClutchPoints).
Let's find out if these Dawgs are going to bark.
Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)
Wins
WK 2 - @JAX: held opp. to 20.6 pts/gm, 343.2 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: CLE 26 - JAX 24
JAX scored 20.7 pts /gm, 316 yds /gm, at home in 2023
CLE scored 23.2 pts /gm, 340.4 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 3 - NYG: gave up 28.67 pts/gm, 420 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CLE 33 - NYG 16
NYG scored 17 pts /gm, 266.67 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 4 - @LV: held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 302.4 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: CLE 24 - LV 21
CLE scored 23.2 pts/gm, 340.1 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 5 - @WSH: gave up 33.4 pts /gm, 361 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: CLE 24 - WSH 20
WSH scored 16 pts /gm, 299 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 7 - CIN: gave up 26.5 pts/gm, 381.875 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CLE 24 - CIN 20
CIN scored 20.4 pts /gm, 315.875 yds /gm on the road in 2023
CLE scored 22.3 pts /gm, 330 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 9 - LAC: gave up 23.75 pts/gm, 364.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CLE 23 - LAC 13
LAC scored 19 pts/gm on the road in 2023
WK 13 - @DEN: gave up 19.5 pts /gm, 322.7 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: CLE 23 - DEN 14
DEN Scored 22.4 pts /gm at home in 2023, 302.6 yds /gm at home
CLE will be ready to making a push for the Division at this stage of the season
WK 17 - MIA: gave up 29.0 pts/gm, 340.1 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CLE 21 - MIA 17
Cold weather anyone?
Losses
WK 11 - @NO: held opp.18.87 pts/gm, 321 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: CLE 20 - NO 21
NO scored 21.85 pts /gm, 321 yds /gm, at home in 2023
1 PM EST kick in the SUPER DOME
WK 15 - KC: held opp. to 18.0 pts/gm, 317.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CLE 20 - KC 26
KC scored 21 pts /gm, 337.8 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 16 - @CIN: gave up 23.1 pts /gm, 342.37 yds /gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CLE 23 - CIN 27
CIN getting primed for a playoff run and dress rehearsal for the playoffs against a prospective playoff team
Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)
WK 1 - DAL: gave up 20.8 pts/gm, 294.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
DAL scored 23.3 pts /gm, 323.4 yds /gm, on the road in 2023
WK 6 - @PHI: gave up 29.375 pts/gm, 386.3 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
PHI scored 30.875 pts /gm, 367.87 at home in 2023
CLE's 3rd straight road game
WK 8 - BAL: held opp. to 15 pts/gm, 290.12 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
BAL scored 24.5 pts /gm, 346.75 yds /gm, on the road in 2023
BAL beat CLE 28-3 WK 4 in 2023
WK 12 - PIT: gave up 20.2 pts/gm, 331.2 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
mid-season divisional bruiser
WK 14 - @PIT: gave up 19.2 pts /gm, 355.8 at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
again divisional bruiser
WK 18 - @BAL: gave up 23.1 pts/gm, 361.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
dependent on how these two teams are doing in December
WK 10 - Bye
Our Win Total Pick: 8.5, UNDER +115
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5 | over -105, under -115
As the Pittsburgh Steelers approach the 2024 NFL season, the team is entering with both cautious optimism and lingering uncertainties. Head coach Mike Tomlin, who has famously never had a losing season, faces one of his toughest challenges yet in a hyper-competitive AFC North. The offense, led by Kenny Pickett, aims to take a significant step forward after showing flashes of potential last year. However, offensive consistency remains a concern, particularly at quarterback, with some analysts skeptical about whether Pickett can elevate his game enough to drive this team back to the playoffs.
On the defensive side, expectations are much higher. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith are expected to lead a ferocious pass rush, with the Steelers projected to finish among the league’s top units in sacks. The defense has been the backbone of this franchise for years, and in 2024, it’s no different. Pittsburgh's defense was ranked 6th in points allowed last season, and they’ll need a similarly strong showing to navigate one of the NFL’s toughest schedules (steelernation.com) (Covers.com).
The Steelers will be tested early and often, with games against high-powered offenses like the Bengals and Ravens. Their season win total is set at 8.5 games, reflecting the challenge of their schedule, and many oddsmakers see them finishing in fourth place in the division (Covers.com) (Steelers Now). However, with Tomlin’s track record and a defense built to dominate, Pittsburgh could exceed those expectations if the offense can find its rhythm.
This year will be pivotal for players like George Pickens, who is poised for a breakout season, and Najee Harris, who will be critical to balancing the offense. While the team might not be favored to win the division, their gritty identity and top-tier defense keep them in the conversation as a playoff contender (FOX Sports) (Steelers Now).
Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)
Wins
WK 1 - @ATL: gave up 20.25 pts/gm, 296.25 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: PIT 21 - ATL 20
Steelers averaged 17.3 pts /gm on the road in 2023
we just think the buzz around PIT will carry a win
WK 8 - NYG: gave up 28.67 pts/gm, 420 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: PIT 26 - NYG 19
NYG scored 17 pts /gm, 266.67 yds /gm on the road in 2023
PIT scored 18.3 pts /gm at home in 2023
WK 10 - @WSH: gave up 33.4 pts /gm, 361 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: PIT 17 - WSH 14
WSH scored 16 pts /gm, 299 yds /gm at home in 2023
Dan Quinn will improve the defense but not enough, PIT in a close one
Losses
WK 2 - @DEN: gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 268.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: PIT 19 - DEN 23
The return of Russ Bus to DEN, crowd is going to be ruthless, gotta give it to the home team
WK 4 - @IND: gave up 25.4 pts/gm, 358.5 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: PIT 20 - IND 22
IND scored 25.6 pts /gm, 372.5 yds /gm, at home in 2023
WK 5 - DAL: gave up 20.8 pts/gm, 294.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023| Projection: PIT 16 - DAL 30
DAL scored 23.3 pts /gm, 323.4 yds /gm, on the road in 2023
DAL will be firing on all cylinders in this spot
WK 6 - @LV: held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 302.4 yds /gm at home in 2023| Projection: PIT 16 - LV 20
LV scored 23.2 pts/gm, 321.5 yds /gm at home in 2023
Steelers averaged 17.3 pts /gm on the road in 2023
WK 7 - NYJ: held opp. to 22.4 pts/gm, 298.5 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: PIT 13 - NYJ 27
Look for a low scoring affair but, Rodgers will be too much and the weapons he has
WK 11 - BAL: held opp. to 15 pts/gm, 290.12 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: PIT 13 - BAL 26
BAL scored 24.5 pts /gm, 346.75 yds /gm, on the road in 2023
BAL will be just too strong
WK 13 - @CIN: gave up 20.25 pts/gm, 296.25 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: PIT 17 - CIN 23
WK 15 - @PHI: gave up 21.9 pts/gm, 364.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: PIT 17 - PHI 31
battle of the Keystone state
PHI looks to be back on track and we think they will be unhinged at the Linc
WK 16 - @BAL: gave up 29.6 pts/gm, 424.75 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: PIT 10 - BAL 20
WK 17 - KC: gave up 24.1 pts/gm 344.4 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection:
Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)
WK 3 - LAC: gave up 23.75 pts/gm, 364.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
LAC scored 19 pts/gm on the road in 2023
PIT scored 18.3 pts /gm at home in 2023
WK 12 - @CLE: held opp. to 13.8 pts /gm, 215.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
CLE scored 22.3 pts /gm, 330 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 13 - @CIN: gave up 20.25 pts/gm, 296.25 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 14 - CLE: held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 271.5 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 17 - @NE: gave up 24.1 pts/gm 344.4 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
WK 18 - CIN: held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 302.4 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
depends on seeding for either of these teams, likely
WK 9 - BYE
Our Win Total Pick: 8.5, UNDER -115
That is our AFC North round up for win totals we'll be back for more so check us out!!
*all odds brought to you by BetMGM
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