AFC West Win Totals
- JP Sweeney
- Sep 5, 2024
- 16 min read
Updated: Jan 9
We are teeming with excitement that the Kick Off game is tomorrow! What better way to going to jump into our AFC West Win Totals and which ones we're going to be investing in. We'll break down each division in the AFC using our analytics, formulas, and sources we're all familiar with.
The analysis, opinions, and selections are for entertainment purposes only and are not recommendations and not guaranteed. Odds are from BetMGM. As always best of luck! Football fans, let's ride!
AFC West
The AFC West is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing divisions in the 2024 NFL season, featuring a blend of established contenders, rebuilding squads, and teams in transition. The Kansas City Chiefs, led by reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes, are once again favorites to win the division, with a high-powered offense and a defense that continues to improve. However, the Los Angeles Chargers, under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, are looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2023 season and could surprise with a revamped running game and a more disciplined approach.
Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos, still adjusting to Sean Payton's leadership, are hoping for a resurgence from Russell Wilson and a defense anchored by emerging talents. The Las Vegas Raiders, led by Antonio Pierce, face a tougher road with questions at quarterback and a roster in flux after several key departures. Despite their challenges, every team in the AFC West has the potential to be a threat, making for a highly competitive division race. With fierce rivalries and unpredictable matchups, the AFC West promises to be a battleground in 2024.
All of this and more, as we head west in the AFC!
Denver Broncos 5.5 | over -145, under +120
The Denver Broncos are poised for a pivotal 2024 NFL season, with hopes to break out of their recent struggles. After finishing 8-9 in 2023, their roster shows potential for improvement but still faces significant challenges. Under head coach Sean Payton, the Broncos are building a more balanced roster, featuring key defensive additions like John Franklin-Myers and improvements from emerging pass-rushers like Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto (Predominantly Orange) (Sporting News). However, with lingering offensive concerns, especially around quarterback performance and offensive line consistency, Denver’s prospects remain cautious.
The Broncos’ 2024 schedule is tough, with early away games against Seattle and Tampa Bay, where they may struggle due to inexperienced players in key roles. Despite these challenges, the team is likely to finish around 9-8 or 8-9, reflecting a balanced mix of close wins and competitive losses (Predominantly Orange) (Sporting News). This season could mark the beginning of a slow resurgence for Denver, but patience will be key for Broncos fans.
Let's look at the Broncos!
Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)
Wins
WK 2 - PIT: gave up 20.2 pts/gm, 331.2 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: DEN 23 - PIT 19
Russel Wilson returns!
Steelers averaged 17.3 pts /gm on the road in 2023
219.33 passing yds /gm given up by the Steelers D on the road
Broncos averaged 22.4 pts /gm at home in 2023
WK 5 - LV: gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 362.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: DEN 23 - LV 20
Broncos were 0-2 against the Raiders in 2023
DEN average 15 pts /gm and allowed 22 pts /gm against the Raiders
We're pulling for a turn around for one game against the Raiders
WK 6 - LAC: gave up 23.75 pts/gm, 364.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: DEN 24 - LAC 21
LAC avg. 19 pts/gm on the road in 2023
DEN Scored 22.4 pts /gm at home in 2023, 302.6 yds /gm at home
WK 8 - CAR: gave up 28.1 pts /gm on the road, 316.89 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: DEN 26 - CAR 16
Bryce Young will struggle a Mile High
Losses
WK 3 - @TB: help opp. to 16.2 pts/gm, 319 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: DEN 17 - TB 26
TB scored 19.2 pts /gm including the playoffs in 2023, 329.2 yds /gm at home
Denver gave up 29.6 pts/gm, 424.75 yds/gm on the road in 2023
Broncos only scored 19.5 pts /gm on the road in 2023, 293.5 yds /gm on the road
WK 4 - @NYJ: held opp. to 19.5 pts/gm, 286.7 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: DEN 16 - NYJ 27
This is easy, better offense, superiorly better defense
WK 7 - @NO: help opp. to 18.875 pts/gm, 321 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: DEN 17 - NO 27
NO scored 25.1 pts /gm at home in 2023, 315.125 yds /gm
DEN gave up 29.6 pts/gm, 424.75 yds/gm on the road in 2023
return game for Sean Payton, Thursday night game PRIME TIME @ SUPER DOME
Bo Nix INT fo' sho'
WK 9 - @BAL: held opp. to 17 pts/gm, 303.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: DEN 15 - BAL 28
BAL scored 30.09 pts /gm, 382.7 yds /gm in at home 2023
Denver gave up 29.6 pts/gm, 424.75 yds/gm on the road in 2023
Denver scored 19.5 pts /gm, 293.5 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 10 - @KC: held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 271.5 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: DEN 20 - KC 33
KC scored 23.1 pts /gm, 368.3 yds /gm at home in 2023
Denver gave up 29.6 pts/gm, 424.75 yds/gm on the road in 2023
Denver scored 19.5 pts /gm, 293.5 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 12 - @LV: held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 302.4 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: DEN 20 - LV 26
LV scored 23.2 pts/gm, 321.5 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 13 - CLE: gave up 31.3 pts/gm, 334 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: DEN 14 - CLE 23
CLE only scored 23.2 pts/gm, 340.1 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 17 - @CIN: held opp. to 19.1 pts /gm, 368.1 yds /gm, at home in 2023 | Projection: DEN 22 - CIN 31
CIN scored 23.7 pts /gm, 321.67 yds /gm at home in 2023
Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)
WK 1 - @SEA: gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 370.0 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: Too close to call
WK 11 - ATL: gave up 23.4 pts/gm, 343.1 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
ATL scored 14.3 pts /gm, 284.5 yds /gm on the road in 2023
This is going to be played in a phone booth
WK 15 - IND: gave up 23.25 pts/gm, 210 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
IND scored 20.6 pts/gm, 298.2 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 16 - @LAC: gave up 23.1 pts/gm, 361.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
LAC scored 21.5 pts /gm, 330.1 yds /gm, at home in 2023
WK 18 - KC: held opp. to 18.0 pts/gm, 317.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
all based on how KC is seeded
WK 14 - Bye
Our Win Total Pick: 5.5, UNDER +120
Kansas City Chiefs 11.5 | over -115, under -105
The Kansas City Chiefs are poised for another strong season in 2024, coming off a Super Bowl victory in 2023. Led by Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs remain the team to beat, and they are favored to secure another AFC West title. Analysts project the Chiefs to win between 12 and 14 games, with a FanDuel over/under set at 11.5. Kansas City's offense, despite being known for explosive plays, could see a resurgence of deep touchdown passes with the addition of rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy.
Mahomes remains the focal point of the offense, but the Chiefs' defense, which ranked highly in 2023, will also play a critical role. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will aim to maintain the unit's dominance, with particular emphasis on improving against key AFC rivals like the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs' challenging schedule includes matchups against playoff-caliber teams such as the Bengals, Ravens, and an interesting Chargers team.
Given their roster depth and coaching prowess, the Chiefs are strong contenders for another deep playoff run, with a potential to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)
Wins
WK 1 - BAL: held opp. to 15 pts/gm, 290.12 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: KC 24 - BAL 22
BAL scored 24.5 pts /gm, 346.75 yds /gm, on the road in 2023
KC held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 271.5 yds /gm at home in 2023
KC scored 23.1 pts /gm, 368.3 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 3 - @ATL: gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 339.75 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: KC 27 - ATL 16
KC held opp. to 18.0 pts/gm, 317.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023
WK 4 - @LAC: gave up 23.1 pts/gm, 361.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: KC 31 - LAC 17
KC held opp. to 18.0 pts/gm, 317.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023
LAC scored 21.5 pts /gm, 330.1 yds /gm, at home in 2023
LAC gave up 23.1 pts/gm, 361.8 yds/gm at home in 2023
WK 5 - NO: gave up 19.5 pts/gm, 343.7 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: KC 27 - NO 20
Monday Night Football
NO scored 22.3 pts /gm, 358.75 yds /gm on the road in 2023
NO 4-5 on the road in 2023
WK 8 - @LV: held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 302.4 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: KC 30 - LV 20
LV scored 23.2 pts/gm, 321.5 yds /gm at home in 2023
KC held opp. to 18.0 pts/gm, 317.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023
WK 9 - TB: gave up 21.9 pts/gm, 364.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: KC 28 - TB 19
TB scored 23 pts /gm, 319.2 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 10 - DEN: held opp. to - pts/gm, - yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: KC 33 - DEN 20
DEN gave up 29.6 pts/gm, 424.75 yds/gm on the road in 2023
KC held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 271.5 yds /gm at home in 2023
KC scored 23.1 pts /gm, 368.3 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 12 - @CAR: gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 268.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: KC 31 - CAR 13
KC held opp. to 18.0 pts/gm, 317.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023
WK 13 - LV: gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 362.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: KC 23 LV 17
LV scored 15.37 pts /gm, 253.5 yds /gm on the road in 2023
KC held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 271.5 yds /gm at home in 2023
KC scored 23.1 pts /gm, 368.3 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 14 - LAC: gave up 23.75 pts/gm, 364.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: KC 28 - LAC17
LAC scored 19 pts/gm on the road in 2023
KC held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 271.5 yds /gm at home in 2023
KC scored 23.1 pts /gm, 368.3 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 17 - @PIT: gave up 19.2 pts /gm at home in 2023 | Projection:
Losses
Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)
WK 2 - CIN: gave up 26.5 pts/gm, 381.875 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
CIN scored 20.4 pts /gm, 315.875 yds /gm on the road in 2023
CIN 3-5 on the road in 2023
3 of those losses came without Burrow
WK 7 - @SF: held opp. to 20.5 pts/gm, 309.3 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
SF scored 27.6 pts/gm at home in 2023
KC held opp. to 18.0 pts/gm, 317.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023
WK 11 - @BUF: held opp. to 17.0 pts/gm, 305.0 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
KC held opp. to 18.0 pts/gm, 317.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023
WK 15 - @CLE: held opp. to 13.8 pts /gm, 215.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
CLE scored 22.3 pts /gm, 330 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 16 - HOU: gave up 22.6 pts/gm, 331.4 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
HOU scored 18.4 pts /gm, 301. yds /gm, on the road in 2023
WK 18 - @DEN: gave up 29.75 pts/gm, 368.4 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
Dependent on seeding
WK 6 - Bye
Our Win Total Pick: 11.5, OVER -115
Las Vegas Raiders 6.5 | over -145, under +120
The 2024 Las Vegas Raiders are entering the season with cautious optimism under head coach Antonio Pierce, who helped rejuvenate the team in the second half of the 2023 campaign. However, the Raiders face numerous challenges, particularly at the quarterback position, where they are expected to start Gardner Minshew. Minshew is considered a competent veteran, but his ability to lead the team to playoff contention remains in question. The Raiders have let go of key contributors such as Jimmy Garoppolo and Josh Jacobs, the latter of whom was the NFL’s leading rusher in 2022.
The offense will still rely heavily on wide receiver Davante Adams, who remains one of the league’s top playmakers, along with Jakobi Meyers and tight end Michael Mayer. However, the running back position lacks depth and proven talent, with Zamir White and Alexander Mattison expected to replace Jacobs. The offensive line and pass protection are also areas of concern, potentially limiting the effectiveness of the passing game.
Defensively, the Raiders have made key additions, including defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, who will bolster the front line. Yet, the unit will need significant improvement to keep up with the elite offenses in the AFC, particularly in a division dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs.
Let's see where we place thhee Raaiiiiidddddeerrrsss
Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)
Wins
WK 1 - @LAC: gave up 23.1 pts/gm, 361.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: LV 24 - LAC 23
LAC scored 21.5 pts /gm, 330.1 yds /gm, at home in 2023
LV gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 362.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023
LV scored 15.37 pts /gm, 253.5 yds /gm on the road in 2023
split the season series in 2023, looking to capitalize
WK 3 - CAR: gave up 28.1 pts/gm, 316.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LV 26 - CAR 17
CAR scored 14.3 pts /gm, 275.2 yds /gm on the road in 2023
LV: held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 302.4 yds /gm at home in 2023
LV scored 23.2 pts/gm, 321.5 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 6 - PIT: gave up 20.2 pts/gm, 331.2 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LV 20 - PIT 16
Steelers averaged 17.3 pts /gm on the road in 2023
219.33 passing yds /gm given up by the Steelers D on the road
WK 12 - DEN: gave up 29.6 pts/gm, 424.75 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LV 26 - DEN 20
DEN scored 19.5 pts /gm on the road in 2023, 293.5 yds /gm on the road
WK 15 - ATL: gave up 23.4 pts/gm, 343.1 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LV 28 - ATL 17
ATL scored 14.3 pts /gm, 284.5 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 16 - JAX: gave up 23.1 pts /gm, 342.37 yds /gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LV 26 - JAX 24
JAX scored 23.75 pts /gm, 366 yds /gm on the road in 2023
Losses
WK 2 - @BAL: held opp. to 17 pts/gm, 303.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: LV 17 - BAL 31
BAL scored 30.09 pts /gm, 382.7 yds /gm in at home 2023
WK 4 - CLE: gave up 31.3 pts/gm, 334 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LV 21 - CLE 24
CLE only scored 23.2 pts/gm, 340.1 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 5 - @DEN: gave up 19.5 pts /gm at home in 2023, 322.7 yds /gm at home | Projection: LV 20 - DEN 23
DEN Scored 22.4 pts /gm at home in 2023, 302.6 yds /gm at home
LV gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 362.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023
LV scored 15.37 pts /gm, 253.5 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 7 - @LAR: gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 339.75 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: LV 23 - LAR 27
WK 8 - KC: held opp. to 18.0 pts/gm, 317.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LV 20 - KC 30
WK 9 - @CIN: held opp. to 19.1 pts /gm, 368.1 yds /gm, at home in 2023 | Projection: LV 17 - CIN 27
CIN scored 23.7 pts /gm, 321.67 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 11 - @MIA: held opp.17.3 pts/gm, 306.5 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: LV 22 - MIA 38
MIA scored 31.8 pts/gm at home in 2023
WK 13 - @KC: held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 271.5 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: LV 17 - KC 23
KC scored 23.1 pts /gm, 368.3 yds /gm at home in 2023
Raiders won 20-14 WK 16 in 2023
WK 17 - @NO: help opp. to 18.875 pts/gm, 321 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LV 21 - NO 26
NO scored 25.1 pts /gm at home in 2023, 315.125 yds /gm
1 PM EST game @ SUPER DOME
Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)
WK 14 - @TB: held opp. to 16.2 pts/gm, 319 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
TB scored 19.2 pts /gm including the playoffs in 2023, 329.2 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 18 - @LAC: gave up 23.1 pts/gm, 361.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
dependent on how these two teams are doing in December
WK 10 - Bye
Our Win Total Pick: 6.5, OVER -145
Los Angeles Chargers 8.5 | over -160, under +135
The Los Angeles Chargers head into the 2024 NFL season with a mixture of optimism and caution under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. Despite a disappointing 5-12 record last year, the Chargers are expected to benefit from Harbaugh's leadership and one of the league’s easiest schedules. However, the 2024 campaign is projected to be a transitional year, as Harbaugh implements his system and reshapes the team’s identity.
Justin Herbert will continue to be a central figure for the Chargers, and fans are hoping he can elevate his game under Harbaugh’s guidance. Herbert is expected to improve his efficiency behind an upgraded offensive line, featuring a healthier Rashawn Slater and the addition of rookie tackle Joe Alt. Harbaugh's decision to hire Greg Roman as offensive coordinator suggests the team will prioritize a strong running game, possibly pushing the Chargers into the NFL’s top-5 rushing attacks, particularly with a focus on using backs like Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins.
On defense, Khalil Mack could be a midseason trade candidate if the Chargers struggle early. While still an impactful player, trading Mack could allow the Chargers to gather draft assets to build for the future. The Chargers' defense, which struggled last season, will rely on Joey Bosa to stay healthy and lead the pass rush.
The Chargers have a few gettable matchups against weaker teams like the Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers. However, they may struggle against tougher opponents like the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens. An improvement this year is predicted by several analysts but, Harbaugh will likely need more time to fully turn this roster into a playoff contender. While there may be flashes of brilliance, consistency will likely be an issue in 2024 as the Chargers adapt to a new coaching regime.
Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)
Wins
WK 2 - @CAR: gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 268.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: LAC 23 - CAR 17
WK 10 - TEN: gave up 24.1 pts/gm, 356.75 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LAC 20 - TEN 14
TEN scored 12.6 pts /gm, 262.6 yds /gm
WK 13 - @ATL: gave up 20.25 pts/gm, 296.25 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: LAC 24 - ATL 23
ATL scored 24 pts /gm, 390.25 yds /gm at home in 2023
Losses
WK 1 - LV: gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 362.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LAC 23 - LV 24
LV scored 15.37 pts /gm, 253.5 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 4 - KC: held opp. to 18.0 pts/gm, 317.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LAC 17 - KC 31
WK 6 - @DEN: gave up 19.5 pts /gm at home in 2023, 322.7 yds /gm at home | Projection: LAC 21 - DEN 24
DEN Scored 22.4 pts /gm at home in 2023, 302.6 yds /gm at home
LAC scored 19 pts/gm on the road in 2023
WK 7 - @ARI: gave up 29.75 pts/gm, 368.4 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: LAC 20 - ARI 27
LAC gave up 23.75 pts/gm, 364.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023
LAC scored 19 pts/gm on the road in 2023
WK 9 - @CLE: held opp. to 13.8 pts /gm, 215.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: LAC 13 - CLE 23
CLE scored 22.3 pts /gm, 330 yds /gm at home in 2023
LAC scored 19 pts/gm on the road in 2023
LAC gave up 23.75 pts/gm, 364.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023
WK 11 - @CIN: held opp. to 19.1 pts /gm, 368.1 yds /gm, at home in 2023| Projection: LAC 18 - CIN 24
CIN scored 23.7 pts /gm, 321.67 yds /gm at home in 2023
WK 12 - BAL: held opp. to 15 pts/gm, 290.12 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LAC 16 - BAL 33
BAL scored 24.5 pts /gm, 346.75 yds /gm, on the road in 2023
WK 14 - @KC: held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 271.5 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: LAC 17 - KC 28
KC scored 23.1 pts /gm, 368.3 yds /gm at home in 2023
LAC gave up 23.75 pts/gm, 364.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023
LAC scored 19 pts/gm on the road in 2023
Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)
WK 3 - @PIT: held opp. to 19.2 pts/gm, 316.2 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
PIT Scored 18.3 pts /gm at home in 2023
WK 8 - NO: gave up 19.5 pts/gm, 343.7 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
NO scored 22.3 pts /gm, 358.75 yds /gm on the road in 2023
NO 4-5 on the road in 2023
WK 15 - TB: gave up 21.9 pts/gm, 364.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
TB scored 23 pts /gm, 319.2 yds /gm on the road in 2023
WK 16 - DEN: gave up 29.6 pts/gm, 424.75 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
DEN scored 19.5 pts /gm on the road in 2023, 293.5 yds /gm on the road
LAC scored 21.5 pts /gm, 330.1 yds /gm, at home in 2023
WK 17 - @NE: gave up 24.1 pts/gm 344.4 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A
NE gave up 20.8 pts/gm, 311.1 yds/gm at home in 2023
LAC scored 19 pts/gm on the road in 2023
gave up 23.75 pts/gm, 364.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023
WK 18 - @LV: held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 302.4 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A
LV scored 23.2 pts/gm, 321.5 yds /gm at home in 2023
LAC gave up 23.75 pts/gm, 364.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023
LAC scored 19 pts/gm on the road in 2023
WK 5 - BYE
Our Win Total Pick: 8.5, UNDER +135
That is our AFC West round up for win totals we'll be back for more so check us out!!
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