Divisional Weekend Recap
- JP Sweeney
- Jan 26
- 5 min read
It was an awesome weekend of football! 4 grate games and one of them had the same old result I think most football fans did not want to see... the Refs somehow injecting themselves into the Texans / Chiefs game. The Chiefs did still prove they are the best when playing at home and Conference Championship Sunday should be one hell of a game with the next installment of Bills / Chiefs.
Back to the Divisional games though, 3 of the 4 dogs covered while 2 out of the 4 won outright! Of course, the Ravens / Bills game was nearly a pick 'em but, the Bills were 1-point home dogs. The Commanders going into Detroit and blowing up the 'Cinderella' story for the Lions was remarkable.
We'll recap the weekend we had with Our Projections and some key points that we noted while we watched.
Game 1:
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, JAN-18 4:30 PM ET
HOU 14 O/U 41.5 (UNDER)
KC 23 (-8.5)
KANSAS CITY, MO - The Texans Defense travelled and played well enough to give their offense a shot to compete. However, the offense came up short as Stroud could not throw a TD and Mixon was the sole Texans TD scorer. As McAfee says, "the Chiefs is still the Chiefs" sacking Stroud 8 times and pressuring him on 51.2% of his dropbacks. Mahomes did not surpass 200 yards passing, only accumulating 177 yards with 117 of those coming from Kelce!! We're excited to preview Allen vs Mahomes IV but, first let's check out how we did.
Our Projections:
Algorithm:
Houston Texans 20
Kansas City Chiefs 24
This was pretty close however the algorithm was on the over and we were scared about that after last week's performance. The algorithm is still very hot on the Chiefs and continuing to be within the 1-3 pt range, our of 16 games picked (including playoffs) our algorithm has predicted the Chiefs Team Total within 3 points this season 12 times (75%).
Game Picks:
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 & OVER 39.5 (LOSS)
Houston Texans Team Total o/u 16.5 OVER (LOSS)
Over / Under 41.0 OVER (LOSS)
Correct Score: Texans 20 - Chiefs 26 (LOSS)
Player Props:
CJ Stroud Pass TDs 2+ (LOSS)
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards o/u 52.5 OVER (WIN)
Joe Mixon Rush Yards o/u 57.5 OVER (WIN)
Patrick Mahomes Rush Yards o/u 23.5 OVER (LOSS)
Flyers:
Travis Kelce Anytime TD (WIN)
John Metchie III Anytime TD (LOSS)
Marquise Brown Anytime TD (LOSS)
Kareem Hunt Anytime TD (WIN)
Patrick Mahomes Passing TDs 3+ (LOSS)
CJ Stroud INTs 2+ (LOSS)
Patrick Mahomes Rush Yards 30+ (LOSS)
This was definitely an improvement on our Player Props from Wild Card Weekend. We are feeling really good about the Chiefs projections as we head into Conference Championship weekend. Make sure to check out the preview coming Friday.
Game 2:
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
Saturday, JAN-18 6:00 PM ET
WSH 45 (+9.5) O/U 55.5 (OVER)
DET 31
THIS GAME WAS AWESOME!!!!!! As predicted this was the game of the weekend and definitely soared over! Jared Goff decided to try and recreate his 5 INT game from the regular season and then try to come back and win. Unfortunately, he could not overcome the 3 INTs and the Lions ultimately laid down and cleaned out their lockers for the '24-'25 season. Now what will they become? That's a topic of another article once we hit the offseason.
As for the winning team, the Commanders... what a performance from the rookie Daniels! An easy, 22-31 (71% Comp%) 299 yards passing 2 TDs and 0 turnovers, oh and he ran the ball 16 times for 51 yards. As I mentioned in our preview of this game he would put his team on his back and he had some well timed scrambles for 1st downs. His receivers played lights out as well Dyami Brown and Scary Terry combined for 10 receptions, 185 yards and 1 TD. HTTC!
Our Projections:
Algorithm:
Washington Commanders 29
Detroit Lions 31
The algorithm liked the over and that did connect however our side was incorrect. We hit the Lions Team Total on the head but missed on the Commanders side. We did call for the Commanders to cover and they won outright sooooo it was close ha.
Game Picks:
Washington Commanders +16.5 & OVER 51.5 Total Points +120 (WIN)
Washington Commanders Team Total o/u OVER 23.5 +110 (WIN)
Detroit Lions Team Total 1st Half o/u 16.5 OVER -125 (WIN)
Correct Score: Commanders 28 - Lions 31 +17500 *odds by BetMGM (LOSS)
Player Props:
Jayden Daniels Pass TDs 2+ +100 (WIN)
Austin Eckler Receiving Yards 30+ +135 (WIN)
Jameson Williams Rush and Receiving Yards 75+ +155 (LOSS)
Olimade Zaccheaus Receptions 3+ -210 (LOSS)
Jayden Daniels Rush Yards o/u 55.5 OVER -115 (LOSS)
Jameson Williams o/u 1.5 OVER -110 (LOSS)
Jared Goff to complete 1st 5 Passes +260 (LOSS)
Flyers:
Terry McLaurin Anytime TD +125 (WIN)
Austin Eckler Anytime TD +250 (LOSS)
Jayden Daniels Anytime TD +175 (LOSS)
David Montgomery 2+ TDs +350 (LOSS)
Jayden Daniels Rush Yards 80+ +310 (LOSS) | 90+ +450 (LOSS)
Game 3:
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, JAN-19 3:00 PM ET
LAR 22 (+7) O/U 44 (OVER)
PHI 28
We were expecting the meteorologists to be wrong and not be snowy and not impact the game as much as it did.... but in the end WE WERE WRONG. While it took nearly till the 2nd half for the snow really to start sticking and becoming a problem for for Stafford and the offense. Saquon did Saquon things and I think it's safe to say he and Jalen Carter won the game for the Eagles. Now we're geared up for Round III of Commanders / Eagles.
Our Projections:
Algorithm:
Los Angeles Rams 24
Philadelphia Eagles 26
We were pretty damn close on this one. We're feeling very good about how the algorithm is seeing the Eagles and their opponent this weekend.
Game Picks:
Los Angeles Rams +11.5 & UNDER 44.5 Total Points +135 (LOSS)
Correct Score: Rams 20 - Eagles 24 +15000 *odds by BetMGM (LOSS)
Player Props:
Jalen Hurts Rush Attempts 10+ +100 (LOSS)
Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards o/u36.5 OVER -110 (WIN)
Kyren Williams Rush and Receiving Yards 75+ -270 (WIN)
Matthew Stafford Passing TDs 2+ +160 (WIN)
Matthew Stafford to complete 1st 5 Passes +620 (LOSS)
Dallas Goeddert Receptions 4+ -115 (LOSS)
Game 4:
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Sunday, JAN-19 8:00 PM ET
BAL 25 O/U 51.5 (OVER)
BUF 27 (+1)
Buffalo slayed the Raven beast but likely not on their own. Mark Andrews really shit the bed. Had a fumble lost that led to points and also dropped the game tying 2-pt conversion. We feel bad for him and know that he had a tough year buy his standards. He will bounce back next season but, the Bills are on to Arrowhead. Allen vs Mahomes IV.
Our Projections:
Algorithm:
Baltimore Ravens 30
Buffalo Bills 32
We're feeling very good about how the algorithm is seeing things Divisional Weekend. We're excited to see what the algorithm has for Championship Sunday! Check it out when it's posted.
Game Picks:
Buffalo Bills ML -105 (WIN)
Over / Under 52.5 OVER -104 (LOSS)
Correct Score: Ravens 30 - Bills 33 +15000 *odds by BetMGM (LOSS)
Player Props:
Rashod Bateman Receptions 3+ -210 (WIN)
Mark Andrews Receptions 4+ -150 (WIN)
Lamar Jackson Passing TDs 2+ -115 (WIN)
Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards o/u 51.5 OVER -110 (WIN)
Dawson Knox Receptions 3+ +320 (LOSS)
Flyers:
Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards 20+ +145 (LOSS)
Dawson Knox 1st TD Scorer +3300 (LOSS)
Josh Allen Passing TDs 3+ +350 (LOSS)
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