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NFC South Win Totals

Updated: Jan 9

We are teeming with excitement that the Kick Off game is tomorrow! What better way to going to jump into our NFC South Win Totals and which ones we're going to be investing in. We'll break down each division in the NFC using our analytics, formulas, and sources we're all familiar with.


The analysis, opinions, and selections are for entertainment purposes only and are not recommendations and not guaranteed. Odds are from BetMGM. As always best of luck! Football fans, let's ride!



NFC South


The 2024 NFC South race is shaping up to be highly competitive, with no clear favorite. The New Orleans Saints are seen as early contenders for the division title, thanks to a solid defensive core and the addition of quarterback Derek Carr, who is expected to stabilize their offense. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, led by Baker Mayfield, are poised for another strong year, with predictions of a deep playoff run if Mayfield can replicate his 2023 form.


The Atlanta Falcons, bolstered by the arrival of quarterback Kirk Cousins, are hoping for a resurgence and are seen as potential dark horses in the division. Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers are banking on the growth of Bryce Young and key defensive upgrades to surprise many after a tough 2023 season.


Ultimately, this division could be decided by the team that can best adapt to new faces and capitalize on a relatively weaker schedule across the board.


Let's head up to the NFC's hottest temperature teams!


Atlanta Falcons 9.5 | over +125, under -150


The Atlanta Falcons enter the 2024 NFL season with cautious optimism, bolstered by key offseason acquisitions and a renewed focus on developing their young core. The offense will be centered around quarterback Kirk Cousins, who joined the team despite suffering a torn Achilles last season. If Cousins can return to his previous form, the Falcons could see significant improvement, especially with weapons like wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts ready to support him. Both players are expected to have strong seasons, with London in particular projected to be Cousins’ primary target, drawing comparisons to the success Cousins had with Justin Jefferson in Minnesota.


The defense, however, remains an area of concern. While they finished 10th in pressure rate in 2023, the departures of Bud Dupree and Calais Campbell have left the front seven with gaps to fill. The team will rely on younger players like Zach Harrison and Arnold Ebiketie to step up, though their performance is uncertain. Additionally, their secondary, led by standout cornerback A.J. Terrell and safety Jessie Bates, is expected to be solid but could struggle without a consistent pass rush to back them up.


The Falcons face a tough early schedule, including matchups against the Eagles and Chiefs, but there are plenty of winnable games down the stretch. If Cousins stays healthy, the Falcons could challenge for the NFC South title, which remains wide open due to the relative weakness of the division. However, with questions surrounding their defensive consistency, a finish around 7-10 to 8-9 seems likely.


Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)


Wins

  • WK 6 - @CAR: gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 268.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: ATL 23 - CAR 17

    • ATL is going to beat up on CAR all season

      • Better defensive play and dynamic weapons on the offensive side of the ball

    • ATL is going to use Bijan to exploit CAR

    • CAR allowed 111+ rush yds/gm in 2023 at home

    • ATL ran for 111.6 yds/gm on the road in 2023

  • WK 16 - NYG: gave up 28.67 pts/gm, 420 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ATL 26 - NYG 16

    • NYG scored 17 pts/gm on the road in 2023

    • NYG allowed 151.7 rush yds/gm on the road in 2023

  • WK 18 - CAR: gave up 28.1 pts/gm, 316.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ATL 21 - CAR 18

    • just ATL wanting to close the season strong especially at home


Losses

  • WK 1 - PIT: gave up 20.2 pts/gm, 331.2 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ATL 20 - PIT 21

    • Steelers averaged 17.3 pts /gm on the road in 2023

    • ATL will struggle with PIT defense

  • WK 2 - @PHI: gave up 29.37 pts/gm, 386.37 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: ATL 18 - PHI 27

    • PHI scored 30.87 pts/gm at home in 2023

    • PHI just the better team and will not let it be close

  • WK 3 - KC: held opp. to 18.0 pts/gm, 317.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ATL 16 - KC 27

    • KC scored 21 pts /gm, 337.8 yds /gm on the road in 2023

    • again just a better team in KC taking care of business

  • WK 4 - NO: gave up 19.5 pts/gm, 343.7 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ATL 20 - NO 24

    • NO scored 22.3 pts /gm, 358.75 yds /gm on the road in 2023

    • NO lost to ATL in ATL, WK 12 2023, 15 - 24

    • NO was 4-5 on the road, look for a bounce back this year

  • WK 5 - TB: gave up 21.9 pts/gm, 364.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ATL 22 - TB 27

    • Short week, TNF

    • TB scored 23 pts /gm, 319.2 yds /gm on the road in 2023

    • Could be a track meet? last year TB 29 - ATL 25

      • TB rushed the ball for 142 yds @ATL

  • WK 6 - JAX: gave up 23.1 pts /gm, 342.37 yds /gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ATL 20 - JAX 23

    • JAX scored 23.75 pts /gm, 366 yds /gm on the road in 2023

    • JAX 23 - ATL 7 in WK 4 2023

  • WK 8 - @TB: held opp. to 16.2 pts/gm, 319 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: ATL 16 - TB 21

    • ATL beat TB on a last second FG WK 7 in 2023

  • WK 9 - DAL: gave up 20.8 pts/gm, 294.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ATL 14 - DAL 30

    • just a better team will come in and blow the doors off

  • WK 10 - @NO: held opp. To 18.875 pts/gm, 321 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: ATL 17 - NO 23

    • it's the Super Dome

    • NO will impose the will at 1pm ET kick

  • WK 13 - LAC: gave up 23.75 pts/gm, 364.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ATL 23 - LAC 24

    • LAC scored 19 pts/gm on the road in 2023

    • likely LAC wins a close, low scoring game

  • WK 14 - @MIN: held opp. To 19.5 pts/gm, 314.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ATL 14 - MIN 19

    • MIN will take the air out of the ball. and run over ATL

  • WK 15 - @LV: held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 302.4 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: ATL 17 - LV 28

    • LV scored 23.2 pts/gm, 321.5 yds /gm at home in 2023

    • LV should be in form here


Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)

  • WK 7 - SEA: gave up 23.4 pts/gm, 372.5 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A

    • This will just be a game whoever as the ball last will win

  • WK 11 - @DEN: gave up 19.5 pts/gm, 322.7 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A

    • DEN Scored 22.4 pts /gm at home in 2023, 302.6 yds /gm

    • ATL likely can keep it closer than expected

  • WK 17 - @WSH: gave up 23.4 pts/gm, 372.5 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A

    • coin flip game with the rookie QB in WSH


WK 12 - BYE


Our Win Total Pick: 9.5, UNDER -150




Carolina Panthers 5.5 | over +105, under -105


The Carolina Panthers enter the 2024 season with optimism under new head coach Dave Canales, aiming to improve on their disappointing 2-15 campaign, which shouldn't take much but... One of the key storylines revolves around the development of quarterback Bryce Young, who, after a challenging rookie year, has shown signs of growth during the offseason however, we're still pretty low on him. His progress is crucial for the Panthers to elevate their offense, however, they didn't get any new weapons for Bryce.


The Panthers made significant moves in free agency and the draft, adding players like edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney, who is expected to bolster the pass rush and potentially achieve his first double-digit sack season. The revamped offensive line, featuring veterans like Taylor Moton and newcomer Robert Hunt, aims to provide better protection for Young while improving the run game, where Chuba Hubbard could surprise as the lead back, taking advantage of a contract year (Cat Crave) (Football Fan Spot).


On defense, the Panthers are leaning on players like Jaycee Horn and Derrick Brown to lead a unit that struggled last season but has shown flashes of potential during preseason. With Canales’ new system and a slightly easier NFC South competition, there's cautious optimism that the Panthers could outperform low expectations, with some predicting up to seven wins.


Carolina remains a work in progress, we don't expect much out of this squad in 2024.


Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)


Wins



Losses

  • WK 1 - @NO: held opp. to 18.875 pts/gm, 321 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: CAR 16 - NO 27

    • The Super Dome will be rocking to open the season against a division foe

    • NO scored 25.1 pts/gm at home in 2023

  • WK 2 - LAC: gave up 23.75 pts/gm, 364.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CAR 17 - LAC 23

    • LAC scored 19 pts/gm on the road in 2023

    • CAR gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 268.1 yds/gm at home in 2023

  • WK 3 - @LV: gave up 29.75 pts/gm, 368.4 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: CAR 17 - LV 26

    • LV scored 23.2 pts/gm, 321.5 yds /gm at home in 2023

    • CAR gave up 28.1 pts/gm, 316.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023

  • WK 4 - CIN: gave up 26.5 pts/gm, 381.875 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CAR 20 - CIN 31

    • CIN scored 20.4 pts /gm, 315.875 yds /gm on the road in 2023

    • CIN gave up 26.5 pts/gm, 381.875 yds/gm on the road in 2023

    • The slow start ends this week, offense gets back on track even if the defense gives up a couple TDs

    • Burrow and the bouys get back on track with CAR

  • WK 6 - ATL: gave up 23.4 pts/gm, 343.1 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CAR 17 - ATL 23

    • tough to decide on this game, just believe in the QB and coach more

  • WK 8 - @DEN: gave up 19.5 pts/gm, 322.7 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: CAR 16 - DEN 26

    • Bryce Young will struggle a Mile High

    • and even though DEN isn't known for offense they should score some points

  • WK 9 - NO: gave up 19.5 pts/gm, 343.7 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CAR 19 - NO 21

    • NO scored 22.3 pts /gm, 358.75 yds /gm on the road in 2023

    • Likely closer than normally giving credit for

    • NO in a lower scoring game

  • WK 12 - KC: held opp. to 18.0 pts/gm, 317.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CAR 13 - KC 31

    • KC scored 21 pts /gm, 337.8 yds /gm on the road in 2023

    • ATL 0-4 against 2023 playoff teams during the 2023 season

  • WK 13 - TB: gave up 24.4 pts/gm, 369.2 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CAR 15 - TB 24

    • TB gave up 21.9 pts/gm, 364.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023

    • TB scored 23 pts /gm, 319.2 yds /gm on the road in 2023

  • WK 14 - @PHI: gave up 29.37 pts/gm, 386.37 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: CAR 13 - PHI 30

    • PHI scored 30.87 pts/gm at home in 2023

    • this will be a beat down

  • WK 15 - DAL: held opp. to 19.5 pts/gm, 286.7 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: CAR 13 - DAL 31

    • back to back beatdowns with DAL coming to town after the CAR trip to PHI

    • DAL scored 23.3 pts /gm, 323.4 yds /gm, on the road in 2023

    • CAR hosted DAL in WK 11 (2023) and got roasted DAL 33 - CAR 10

  • WK 16 - ARI: gave up 24.1 pts/gm 344.4 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: CAR 19 - ARI 20

    • ARI will be fiesty and beat the reeling, and planning Panthers

  • WK 17 - @TB: held opp. to 16.2 pts/gm, 319 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: CAR 16 - TB 25

    • TB scored 19.2 pts/gm at home in 2023

  • WK 18 - @ATL: gave up 20.25 pts/gm, 296.25 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: CAR 18 - ATL 21

    • ATL closes out the season strong with a walk-off kick


Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)

  • WK 5 - @CHI: held opp. to 19.9 pts/gm, 273.5 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A

    • CHI scored 19.875 pts /gm at home in 2023 

    • early enough where it wont be cold

    • lean CHI but Canales could have the boys ready and passed their shit start

  • WK 7 - @WSH: gave up 23.3 pts/gm, 353.9 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A

    • toss up just because Jayden Daniels is a rookie (we can look to Bryce for comparison)

  • WK 10 - NYG: held opp. to 19.7 pts/gm, 331.5 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A

    • Germany game

    • who knows, this is such an unfortunately terrible matchup, thankfully it's a 7:30 am MT kick


WK 11 - BYE


Our Win Total Pick: 5.5, UNDER -155




New Orleans Saints 7.5 | over -145, under +120


The New Orleans Saints head into the 2024 NFL season with optimism following a mixed 2023 campaign. Despite finishing with a 9-8 record and narrowly missing the playoffs, there are high expectations under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, known for his work with the 49ers and Vikings. The Saints are banking on quarterback Derek Carr, who will need to develop stronger chemistry with top receiver Chris Olave and other weapons like Rashid Shaheed and tight end Juwan Johnson. The offensive line, anchored by first-round pick Taliese Fuaga, will also play a pivotal role in protecting Carr.


On defense, the Saints retain key veteran leaders such as Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis, and Marshon Lattimore. The defense performed well last year, and coach Dennis Allen, a defensive-minded leader, will look to maintain that standard. Additions like cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry from Alabama bring youthful talent to balance the experience.


With a relatively favorable schedule and strong veteran leadership, the Saints could capitalize on a competitive NFC South division. (365Scores) (whodatdish.com).


Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)


Wins

  • WK 1 - CAR: held opp. to 22.4 pts/gm, 298.5 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NO 27 - CAR 16

    • CAR scored 14.3 pts /gm, 275.2 yds /gm on the road in 2023

    • NO scored 25.1 pts/gm at home in 2023

  • WK 4 - @ATL: held opp. to 19.5 pts/gm, 314.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NO 24 - ATL 20

    • We think ATL will take some time to get in form

    • NO will come in and get an early win

  • WK 7 - DEN: gave up 29.6 pts/gm, 424.75 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NO 27 - DEN 16

    • DEN scored 19.5 pts /gm, 293.5 yds /gm on the road in 2023

    • Sean Payton's return to the Super Dome???? LOUUUUUUD for a rookie QB

  • WK 9 - @CAR: gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 268.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NO 21 - CAR 19

    • NO goes coast to coast but will get the W

  • WK 10 - ATL: held opp. to 19.9 pts/gm, 273.5 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NO 23 - ATL 17

    • NO will be in the hunt for the division and will rake on the lesser teams, this is one of those matchups

  • WK 11 - CLE: gave up 31.3 pts/gm, 334 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NO 21 - CLE 20

    • CLE going to the Super Dome early, always tough games to get up for

  • WK 14 - @NYG: gave up 18.625 pts/gm, 295.7 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NO 26 - NYG 17

    • simple, Giants are trash

    • NO by a TD+

  • WK 15 - WSH: gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 370.0 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NO 29 - WSH 20

    • another rookie QB coming to the Super Dome

  • WK 17 - LV: held opp. to 17.0 pts/gm, 305.0 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NO 26 - LV 21

    • 1 PM ET kick at the Super Dome, hard to get up for that time slot


Losses

  • WK 2 - @DAL: held opp. to 19.4 pts/gm, 317.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NO 17 - DAL 29

    • DAL is going to put up points

    • the pass rush for DAL should get Carr on the ground which will disrupt him and his timing

  • WK 3 - PHI: gave up 22.5 pts/gm, 338.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NO 21 - PHI 24

    • PHI scored 19.5 pts /gm, 335.7 yds /gm on the road in 2023

    • should be a very entertaining matchup

  • WK 5 - @KC: gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 339.75 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: NO 20 - KC 27

    • Monday Night Football

    • NO was 1-2 in Primetime games in 2023

  • WK 6 - TB: gave up 24.1 pts/gm 344.4 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: NO 17 - TB 23

    • we think Baker will do what he did last year, TB 26 - NO 9


Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)

  • WK 6 - ARI: gave up 24.1 pts/gm 344.4 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A

    • ARI can go anywhere and play and they're scrappy

    • Whoever doesn't turn the ball over here wins

  • WK 8 - @LAC: held opp. to 20.6 pts/gm, 343.2 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A

    • total coin flip

    • we think it could be a low scoring game

  • WK 13 - LAR: gave up 29.0 pts/gm, 340.1 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A

    • late window FOX game

    • Super Dome advantage

  • WK 16 - @GB: gave up 20.0 pts/gm, 320.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A

    • this game could have playoff implications

  • WK 18 - @TB: gave up 29.75 pts/gm, 368.4 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A

    • situational game


WK 12 - BYE


Our Win Total Pick: 7.5, OVER -145






Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.5 | over -140, under +115


The 2024 season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers presents a blend of optimism and challenges. After securing NFC South titles in previous years, the team remains in a division ripe for competition, especially with the Atlanta Falcons emerging as potential threats.


Baker Mayfield, coming off a strong 2023 season with over 4,000 passing yards and 28 touchdowns, is expected to lead the team’s offense with even greater productivity, potentially surpassing those numbers from last year. Locking down Mike Evans and brining in Jeremy McMillan gives them a legit third option after Godwin. The defense will be anchored by key players like Antoine Winfield Jr., who is expected to build on his stellar performance, possibly finishing in the top three for Defensive Player of the Year.


Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)


Wins

  • WK 1 - WSH: gave up 27.3 pts/gm 405 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: TB 26 - WSH 20

    • TB and Baker will be not the welcoming party Jayden Daniels is hoping for

    • TB should outscore their 19.3 pts/gm from 2023

    • rookie QB, game 1...

  • WK 3 - DEN: gave up 29.6 pts/gm, 424.75 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: TB 26 - DEN 16

    • TB should utilize home field when it's still hot and only week 3 for a rookie QB, on the road for the second time in 3 weeks

    • DEN scored 19.5 pts /gm, 293.5 yds /gm on the road in 2023

  • WK 5 - @ATL: gave up 20.25 pts/gm, 296.25 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: TB 27 - ATL 22

    • ATL scored 24 pts /gm, 390.25 yds /gm at home in 2023

    • TB scored 23 pts /gm, 319.2 yds /gm on the road in 2023

  • WK 6 - @NO: held opp. To 18.875 pts/gm, 321 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: TB 23 - NO 17

    • NO scored 25.1 pts/gm at home in 2023

    • Baker dominated NO in the Super Dome last year

  • WK 8 - ATL: gave up 23.4 pts/gm, 343.1 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: TB 21 - ATL 16

    • more of the fact ATL was so bad on the road last year

  • WK 12 - @NYG: held opp. to 19.9 pts/gm, 273.5 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: TB 28 - NYG 16

    • pick against the Giants when it's obvious, this is obvious

  • WK 13 - @CAR: gave up 24.1 pts/gm 344.4 yds/gm on the road in 2023  | Projection: TB 24 - CAR 15

    • again, pick against CAR in the obvious situations

  • WK 17 - CAR: held opp. to19.9 pts/gm, 273.5 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: TB 25 - CAR 16

    • pick the obvious

    • TB will likely be entrenched in a playoff spot battle

Losses

  • WK 2 - @DET: gave up 21.9 pts/gm, 335.4 yds/gm iat home n 2023 | Projection: TB 27 - DET 33

    • DET scored 29.9 pts /gm at home in 2023

    • TB scored 23 pts /gm, 319.2 yds /gm on the road in 2023

    • we project a barn burner, close game sorta, and a Lions win

    • but good barometer for the Bucs

  • WK 4 - PHI: gave up 22.5 pts/gm, 338.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023  | Projection: TB 23 - PHI 27

    • should be close game

    • PHI scored 19.5 pts /gm, 335.7 yds /gm on the road in 2023

    • TB scored 19.2 pts /gm including the playoffs in 2023

  • WK 7 - BAL: held opp. to 15 pts/gm, 290.12 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: TB 17 - BAL 26

    • BAL scored 24.5 pts /gm, 346.75 yds /gm, on the road in 2023

    • the matchup favors BAL, mobile QB, bruising RB (Henry), speedy wide outs

  • WK 9 - @KC: held opp. to 15.5 pts /gm, 271.5 yds /gm at home in 2023 | Projection: TB 19 - KC 28

    • Monday Night Football

    • KC scored 23.1 pts /gm, 368.3 yds /gm at home in 2023

    • pick the obvious

  • WK 10 - SF: held opp. to 16.1 pts/gm, 316.2 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: TB 17 - SF 31

    • SF scored 29.5 pts /gm on the road in 2023

  • WK 16 - @DAL: held opp. to 19.4 pts/gm, 317.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: TB 23 - DAL 35

    • this should be a good game

    • DAL scored 36.77 pts /gm, 435.11 yds /gm at home in 2023

    • TB will struggle to keep up but should be an OVER play


Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)

  • WK 14 - LV: gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 362.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A

    • LV scored 15.37 pts /gm, 253.5 yds /gm on the road in 2023

    • Baker should be able to throw a couple but watch for a strip sack from Maxx Crosby

  • WK 15 - @LAC: gave up 23.1 pts/gm, 361.8 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A

    • LAC scored 21.5 pts /gm, 330.1 yds /gm, at home in 2023

    • TB scored 23 pts /gm, 319.2 yds /gm on the road in 2023

    • gave up 21.9 pts/gm, 364.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023

  • WK 18 - NO: gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 339.75 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A

    • situational game


WK 11 - BYE


Our Win Total Pick:  7.5, OVER -140




That is our NFC South round up for win totals we'll be back for more so check us out!!


 



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