Looking ahead to Championship Sunday Pt.
- JP Sweeney
- Jan 26
- 5 min read
LEt's get hyped for Championship Sunday! We're going to start with the first game at 3 ET, it's Round 3 of the Commander and Eagles.
Let's goooooo!
Game 1:
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, JAN-19 3:00PM ET
WSH +6 O/U 47.5 PHI -6
PHILADELPHIA, PA - It's Round 3, the Rubber Match, the game that matters... the one to go to the Super Bowl! Not a lot to say between these two since this is their 3rd match up. I will mention that there are some injuries we will note that Commanders lost one of their premier pass rushers last week in Daron Payne. On the other side of the ball, Cam Jergens didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday. Could pose a problem for the Tush Push and allow the Commanders a lane to rush. We shall see how these injuries impact the gameplan since both these teams know each other so well.
In Week 16 Jalen was injured with a concussion in the 1st Quarter. So cannot take his stats from that game but we can go back to Week 11 to see, he threw for 221 on 18 of 22 passes no TDs, no INTs. He did carry the ball 10 times for 39 yards in Week 11 and carried the ball 3 times for 41 yards in Week 16 prior to getting concussed. We'll see what he can do today after getting banged up last weekend against the Rams.
Philadelphia Pass O @ Home | Washington Pass D on Road |
- 112.9 YPG (15th) - 7.1 Pass YPP (8th) - 16 Pass TDs (11th) - 18 Sacks allowed (14th) - 6.6% Sack allowed Rate% (17th) - 3.07 secs TTT (1st) - 92 QBPs (12th) - 30.6% QBP Rate% (9th) - 2.84 secs TTP - 36.0% Opp. Blitz Rate% (30th) - 971 YACatch (20th) - 3.4 yds separation (23th) | - 105.1 YPG (11th) - 7.0 Pass YPP (28th) - 13 Pass TDs allowed (20th) - 18 Sacks (22nd) - 6.7% Sack Rate% (11th) - 2.64 secs Opp. TTT (4th) - 81 QBPs (30th) - 30.0% QBP Rate% (24th) - 2.60 secs TTP (9th) - 0.78 secs Get-Off (4th) - 30.4% Blitz Rate% (10th) - 959 YACatch (9th) - 3.4 yds separation (11th) |
all stats provide by NFL+ Premium's NFL PRO
This is where the Eagles will butter their bread. Barkley rushed for over 150 yards each of the earlier meetings this season against the Commanders. I think if the Commanders commit to stopping the home run, run from Saquon and force Hurts to be a passer that will be their best recipe for success on Defense.
Philadelphia Rush O @ Home | Washington Rush D on Road |
- 87.1 YPG (2nd) - 4.4 Rush YPP (13th) - 11 Rush TDs (7th) - 38 10+ yds rushes (5th) - 16.0% Run Stuffed% (14th) - 2.53 RYAC/Att (29th) - 1.89 RYBC/Att (8th) - 46.0% Rush Inside% (15th) - 48.7% Rush Outside% (19th) - 51.6% Rush Opp. Light Box% (6th) - 22.6% Rush Opp. Stacked Box% (13th) | - 70.8 YPG (26th) - 4.9 Rush YPP (31st) - 9 Rush TDs allowed (22nd) - 39 10+ yds rushes allowed (31st) - 15.5% Run Stuff% (22nd) - 2.47 RYAC/Att (2nd) - 2.42 YBC/Att (32nd) - 53.9% Opp. Rush Inside% (30th) - 43.7% Opp. Rush Outside% (3rd) - 56.7% Light Box% (29th) - 19.6% Stacked Box% (15th) |
all stats provide by NFL+ Premium's NFL PRO
Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels is set to enter the biggest game of his football life. The first two games of the playoff run he has not committed a turnover and has played lights out! We expect to see him have a huge game again and give his team a legitimate chance to win this game.
Philadelphia Pass D @ Home | Washington Pass O on Road |
- 89.6 YPG (5th) - 5.4 Pass YPP (5th) - 9 Pass TDs allowed (6th) - 17 Sacks (27th) - 5.7% Sack Rate% (23rd) - 2.74 secs Opp. TTT (6th) - 92 QBPs (28th) - 30.7% QBP Rate% (28th) - 2.65 secs TTP (10th) - 0.87 secs Get-Off (25th) - 20.7% Blitz Rate% (26th) - 867 YACatch (5th) - 3.5 yds separation (17th) | - 95.3 YPG (26th) - 6.4 Pass YPP (13th) - 12 Pass TDs (15th) - 24 Sacks Allowed (22nd) - 9.5% Sack Allowed% (30th) - 2.66 secs TTT (31th) - 89 QBPs Allowed (7th) - 30.2% QBP Rate% (8th) - 2.84 secs TTP (6th) - 27.4% Opp. Blitz% (14th) - 954 YACatch (16th) - 3.9 yds separation (3rd) |
all stats provide by NFL+ Premium's NFL PRO
The two headed monster in Brian Robinson Jr and Austin Eckler could be a huge weight off of Daniels' shoulders. If the 2 RBs can combine for 100+ yards Commanders will win. Eckler is going to be a big part of the passing game and we have a couple likes in Our Projections.
Philadelphia Rush D @ Home | Washington Rush O on Road |
- 57.0 YPG (12th) - 4.3 Rush YPP (12th) - 5 Rush TDs allowed (8th) - 24 10+ yds rushes allowed (11th) - 15.5% Run Stuff Rate% (20th) - 3.05 RYAC/Att (18th) - 1.26 RYBC/Att (14th) - 47.8% Opp. Rush Inside% (23rd) - 50.4% Opp. Rush Outside% (14th) - 68.1% Light Box% (32nd) - 7.1% Stacked Box% (2nd) | – 59.2 YPG (13th) - 4.3 Rush YPP (16th) - 13 Rush TDs (5th) - 20 10+ yds rushes (28th) - 15.3% Run Stuffed% (14th) - 2.44 RYAC/Att (32nd) - 1.85 RYBC/Att (5th) - 49.2% Rush Inside% (10th) - 47.9% Rush Outside% (21st) - 60.2% Rush Opp. Light Box% (1st) - 14.4% Rush Opp. Stacked Box% (29th) |
all stats provide by NFL+ Premium's NFL PRO
Our Projections:
We love the over in this game, weather is not going to be an issue. It's the tiebreaker to go to Super Bowl LIX in, where else New Orleans! It's hard to pick against what the Eagles have been doing with Saquon butttttt, it seems like a destiny play with the 'Manders.
Game Picks:
Washington Commanders +6 -110
Washington Commanders +12 / OVER 49.5 +118
Correct Score: Commanders 30 - Eagles 27 +15000 *odds by BetMGM
Player Props:
Austin Eckler Rush + Receiving Yards 50+ +110
Jayden Daniels Completions 25+ / Jayden Daniels Pass Attempts 35+ +325
Kenneth Gainwell Rush + Receiving o/u 12.5 OVER -115
Flyers:
(Parlay)
Olamide Zaccheaus Receptions 3+ / Zach Ertz Receptions 2+ / Austin Eckler Rush + Receiving Yards 75+ / DeVonta Smith Receptions 3+ / AJ Brown Receiving Yards 60+ +2000
(Parlay)
Washington Commanders ML / Jayden Daniels Pass Yards 225+ +450
(Parlay)
Jalen Hurts Rush Yards 30+ / Jayden Daniels Rush Yards 40+ +145
(Parlay)
Jayden Daniels Anytime TD / DeVonta Smith Anytime TD +700
*all odds provided by Bet365 unless otherwise noted
*all stats are courtesy of NFL+ Premium's NFL Pro ---> check it out here NFL Pro (requires subscription)
Comments