Looking ahead to Championship Sunday Pt. 2

We're locked and loaded for Championship Sunday! Let's take a look at the Bills at Chiefs IV.

Let's goooooo!

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Game 2:

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, JAN-26 6:30PM ET

BUF +2 O/U 49 KC -2

KANSAS CITY, MO - Here we are set for Allen vs Mahomes IV! Back at the ol' GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. We're going to be in for another great showdown between these two QBs. Like the early game it feels like these two are in the same division and play each other all the time. Both QBs are going to put their team on their back and the game will not be lost due to one of the QBs.

Josh Allen is the guy! By our eye test he is the MVP this year. When these two played Week 11, Allenthre 40 passes completing 27 for 262 yards and 1 TD and 1 INT. He did a lot in that game with his legs. If you go back and watch his final TD run you can see the determination and that has carried the Bills through the season. We like Allen to throw today likely 40 times.

Kansas City Pass D @ Home	Buffalo Pass O on Road
- 105.7 YPG (15th) - 6.1 Pass YPP (15th) - 14 Pass TDs Allowed (25th) -17 Sacks (25th) - 5.3 Sack Rate% (27th) - 101 QBPs (24th) - 31.8% QBP % (23rd) - 2.63 secs TTP (9th) - 2.85 secs Opp. TTT (18th) - 0.86 secs Get-Off (22nd) - 34.6% Blitz Rate% (5th) - 956 YACatch (13th) - 3.6 yds separation (18th)	- 119.1 YPG (5th) - 7.0 Pass YPP (6th) - 12 Pass TDs (10th) - 9 Sacks Allowed (1st) - 3.1% Sack Rate (1st) - 102 QBPs (15th) - 32.8% QBP Rate (12th) - 2.84 secs Opp. TTP (7th) - 2.92 secs TTT (9th) - 28.1% Opp. Blitz Rate (18th) - 1106 YACatch (8th) - 3.4 Yards Separation (20th)

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The rushing game from Cook has been steady on the road and it's a great compliment to Allen's legs. Allen carried the ball 12 times for 55 yards against the Chiefs in Week 11. This was in a win and was at home in Buffalo. I think his legs will be a big part of the game plan regardless what the flow of the game is. I also expect Cook to have a decent to great day. This is despite his performance in Week 11. He only toted the rock 9 times for 20 yards... buttttt he did run in 2 TDs. I have a few thoughts on Player Props check Our Projections for what is going on our card.

Kansas City Rush D @ Home	Buffalo Rush O on Road
- 45.4 YPG (5th) - 4.4 Rush YPP (15th) - 3 Rush TDs Allowed (2nd) - 20 10+ yds rushes allowed (5th) - 11.9% Run Stuff Rate (30th) - 2.84 RYAC/Att (11th) - 1.52 RYBC/Att (20th) - 44.1% Opp. Rush Inside (20th) - 55.4% Opp. Rush Outside (9th) - 31.1% Light Box (27th) - 19.2% Stacked Box (19th)	- 71.6 YPG (5th) - 4.7 Rush YPP (9th) - 17 Rush TDs (2nd) - 32 10+ Yds Rushes (7th) - 14.7% Run Stuffed Rate (10th) - 3.02 YAContact/Att (15th) - 1.72 YBContact/Att (8th) - 48.3% Rush Inside (12th) - 47.5% Rush Outside (23rd) - 37.5% Opp. Light Box (9th) - 26.6% Opp. Stacked Box (28th)

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Kansas City's Pass Offense hasn't been the juggernaut we had been accustom to seeing in years past. The Week 11 match up between these two Mahomes had an interesting day. He was 23-33 for 196 yards 3 TDs and 2 INTs, they lost! If Mahomes holds on to the ball and doesn't turn it over the Chiefs can play their ball and likely win. Look for Kelce to be the guy he has always been, look for some potential shots down field for big plays or, watch for some short in routes taken to the house! Check what we think Pat will do and who he is throwing it to.

Kansas City Pass O @ Home	Buffalo Pass D on Road
- 115.4 YPG (12th) - 6.0 Pass YPP (20th) - 10 Pass TDs (24th) - 23 Sacks Allowed (21st) - 7.1% Sack Rate (21st) - 110 QBPs (19th) - 32.2% QBP Rate (18th) - 2.93 secs TTP (4th) - 2.76 secs TTT (16th) - 26.2% Blitz Rate (10th) - 1385 YACatch (2nd) - 4.2 yds separation (1st)	- 143.4 YPG (31st) - 7.4 Pass YPP (30th) - 16 Pass TDs Allowed (25th) - 16 Sacks (26th) - 4.7% Sack Rate (30th) - 112 QBPs (11th) - 32.6% Sack Rate (17th) - 2.59 secs TTP (7th) - 2.80 secs Opp. TTT (20th) - 0.81 secs Get-Off (9th) - 20.1% Blitz Rate (27th) - 1247 YACatch (31st) - 3.9 Yds Separation (30th)

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It is the question of the day in this game. Which back is going to get the bulk of the load? Pacheco has loved this match up over the years and I think we are going to back him ad his over rushing yards. Again, we have to look at Mahomes to use his legs, look for flags and gain crucial first downs.

Kansas City Rush O @ Home	Buffalo Rush D on Road
- 48.5 YPG (23rd) - 3.9 Rush YPP (25th) - 7 Rush TDs (16th) - 13 10+ yds rushes (32nd) - 11.7% Run Stuffed Rate (1st) - 2.37 RYAC/Att (31st) - 1.53 RYBC/Att (13th) - 52.8% Rush Inside (9th) - 43.0% Rush Outside (23rd) - 52.3% Opp. Light Box (29th) - 16.4% Opp. Stacked Box (7th)	- 61.2 YPG (18th) - 4.3 Rush YPP (13th) - 30 10+ Yds Rushes Allowed (21st) - 27.2% Run Stuff Rate (1st) - 2.83 YAContact/Att Allowed (11th) - 1.46 YBContact/Att Allowed (19th) - 42.0% Opp. Rush Inside (7th) - 56.4% Opp. Rush Outside (26th) - 46.5% Light Box (14th) - 9.5% Stacked Box (31st)

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Our Projections:

We like the Bills to win outright and the over too. This is going to be Josh Allen's legacy defining season.

Game Picks:

Buffalo Bills ML +100

Buffalo Bills +8.5 / OVER 48.5 +130

Over / Under 50.5 OVER +104

Buffalo Bills Team Total 27.5 OVER +160

Correct Score: Bills 26 - Chiefs 24 +12500 *odds by BetMGM

Player Props:

James Cook Anytime TD / Travis Kelce Anytime TD +350

Josh Allen Pass Yards 250+ +145

Isiah Pacheco Rush Yards o/u 31.5 OVER -120

Patrick Mahomes Rush Yards 30+ +130

Flyers:

Travis Kelce Anytime TD +120

Dawson Knox Anytime TD +300

Marquise Brown Anytime TD +333

Patrick Mahomes INT 1+ / Von Miller Anytime Sack +525

*all odds provided by Bet365 unless otherwise noted

*all stats are courtesy of NFL+ Premium's NFL Pro ---> check it out here NFL Pro (requires subscription)