Looking ahead to Divisional Weekend Pt. 1

We're going to dive into the Saturday slate of Divisional Weekend and look at the statistical advantages for these two match ups. We're going to then unveil what our projection is for Texans at Chiefs.

Let's goooooo!

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

Game 1:

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

Saturday, JAN-18 4:30PM ET

HOU +8.5 O/U 41.5 KC -8.5

KANSAS CITY, MO - Here we are again, another rematch from a regular season game (Week 16) and a rematch of a Divisional match up between the Texans and the Chiefs. They met back in JAN of 2020 and the Texans jumped out to a 21-0 lead after the first quarter and then proceeded to give up 51 points and go on to lose 51-31. Additionally, the Texans are 0-5 in Divisional Weekend play... meaning they have never made it further than this weekend, will this be their time? Vegas doesn't think so and neither do we but it's going to be closer than the 8.5 the Texans are getting. We're going to keep this write up brief because another rematch and it is Chiefs, in the playoffs.

Stroud hasn't been the best of QBs on the road this season. Turnovers have been a problem for the second year QB especially closing out the season and WCW. Week 16 Stroud threw 2 TDs and 2 INTs against these Chiefs and in the process lost one of his favorite targets in Tank Dell, who will not be playing Saturday. I think Stroud will be looking to Collins and Schultz again, both recorded 5+ receptions in the Week 16 tilt. Collins has been getting the lion share of the targets since Dell went down. Look for him and Metchie to be involved looking to be their big play makers.

Kansas City Pass D @ Home	Houston Pass O on Road
- 105.7 YPG (15th) - 6.1 Pass YPP (15th) - 14 Pass TDs Allowed (25th) -17 Sacks (25th) - 5.3 Sack Rate% (27th) - 101 QBPs (24th) - 31.8% QBP % (23rd) - 2.63 secs TTP (9th) - 2.85 secs Opp. TTT (18th) - 0.86 secs Get-Off (22nd) - 34.6% Blitz Rate% (5th) - 956 YACatch (13th) - 3.6 yds separation (18th)	- 99.4 YPG (22nd) - 5.2 Pass YPP (28th) - 10 Pass TDs (20th) - 29 Sacks Allowed (28th) - 9.0% Sack Rate (23rd) - 129 QBPs (28th) - 37.0% QBP Rate (22nd) - 2.55 secs TTP (29th) - 2.93 secs TTT (6th) - 37.0% Blitz Rate (30th) - 898 YACatch (24th) - 3.4 yds separation (21st)

all stats provide by NFL+ Premium's NFL PRO

The rushing game will be a big part of the Texans success on offense. Mixon only mustered up 57 yards against the Chiefs in Week 16. He will need to have a game more similar to last weekend for the Texans to have a chance. Something to keep an eye on, CJ Stroud rush yards... keep an eye out in Our Projections.

Kansas City Rush D @ Home	Houston Rush O on Road
- 45.4 YPG (5th) - 4.4 Rush YPP (15th) - 3 Rush TDs Allowed (2nd) - 20 10+ yds rushes allowed (5th) - 11.9% Run Stuff Rate (30th) - 2.84 RYAC/Att (11th) - 1.52 RYBC/Att (20th) - 44.1% Opp. Rush Inside (20th) - 55.4% Opp. Rush Outside (9th) - 31.1% Light Box (27th) - 19.2% Stacked Box (19th)	- 77.2 YPG (4th) - 5.3 Rush YPP (4th) - 11 Rush TDs (7th) - 36 10+ yds rushes (4th) - 17.4 % Run Stuffed Rate (19th) - 3.65 RYAC/Att (2nd) - 1.70 RYBC/Att (9th) - 38.1% Rush Inside (27th) - 58.3% Rush Outside (6th) - 34.0% Opp. Light Box - 24.7% Opp. Stacked Box

all stats provide by NFL+ Premium's NFL PRO

Kansas City's Pass Offense has been the juggernaut we had been accustom to seeing in years past mostly due to injury and trying to ingratiate some new faces [Hollywood Brown and DeAndre Hopkins] into the offense. Regardless of the regression, they still have a guy under center "who's a lot like...." actually, is Patrick Mahomes. Patrick is 6-0 in Divisional Weekend match ups and has thrown 13 TDs and 0 INTs!! I expect the Texans to be rushing rampant just like they did against the Chargers last weekend. We shall see but, we do like a few Player Props, check 'em out later on in Our Projections.

Kansas City Pass O @ Home	Houston Pass D on Road
- 115.4 YPG (12th) - 6.0 Pass YPP (20th) - 10 Pass TDs (24th) - 23 Sacks Allowed (21st) - 7.1% Sack Rate (21st) - 110 QBPs (19th) - 32.2% QBP Rate (18th) - 2.93 secs TTP (4th) - 2.76 secs TTT (16th) - 26.2% Blitz Rate (10th) - 1385 YACatch (2nd) - 4.2 yds separation (1st)	- 119.5 YPG (26th) - 6.1 Pass YPP (12th) - 20 Pass TDs Allowed (30th) - 23 Sacks (8th) - 6.6% Sack Rate (12th) - 116 QBPs (5th) - 33.1% QBP Rate (16th) - 2.55 secs TTP - 2.67 secs Opp. TTT - 0.76 secs Get-Off - 27.1% Blitz Rate (17th) - 1151 YACatch (25th) - 3.3 yds separation (7th)

all stats provide by NFL+ Premium's NFL PRO

The Texans did give up over 100 yards combined rushing to the Chiefs in Week 16. Texans need to clamp down and not allow over 100 yards again if they want to win. The Texans have not allowed over 100 yards rushing since the Christmas Day beat down by the Ravens when Henry put 147 on them. They need to continue the streak against the Chiefs.

Kansas City Rush O @ Home	Houston Rush D on Road
- 48.5 YPG (23rd) - 3.9 Rush YPP (25th) - 7 Rush TDs (16th) - 13 10+ yds rushes (32nd) - 11.7% Run Stuffed Rate (1st) - 2.37 RYAC/Att (31st) - 1.53 RYBC/Att (13th) - 52.8% Rush Inside (9th) - 43.0% Rush Outside (23rd) - 52.3% Opp. Light Box (29th) - 16.4% Opp. Stacked Box (7th)	- 50.4 YPG (7th) - 3.9 Rush YPP (5th) - 4 Rush TDs Allowed (3rd) - 20 10+ yds rushes allowed (7th) - 19.1% Run Stuff Rate (8th) - 3.16 RYAC/Att (24th) - 0.74 RYBC/Att (2nd) - 52.3% Opp. Rush inside (28th) - 45.9% Opp. Rush Outside (5th) - 44.1% Light Box (16th) - 21.8% Stacked Box (13th)

all stats provide by NFL+ Premium's NFL PRO

Our Projections:

The Chiefs is the still the Chiefs and we don't think that changes in this game Chiefs win but Texans cover. We also are playing contrarian again and playing the over.

Game Picks:

Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 & OVER 39.5 Total Points +110

Houston Texans Team Total over 16.5 +105

Over / Under 41.0 OVER -118

Correct Score: Texans 20 - Chiefs 26 +12500 *odds by BetMGM

Player Props:

CJ Stroud Pass TDs 2+ +200

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards o/u 52.5 OVER -110

Joe Mixon Rush Yards o/u57.5 OVER -110

Patrick Mahomes Rush Yards o/u 23.5 OVER -110

Flyers:

Travis Kelce Anytime TD +120

John Metchie III Anytime TD +500

Marquise Brown Anytime TD +333

Kareem Hunt Anytime TD +162

Patrick Mahomes Passing TDs 3+ +230

CJ Stroud INTs 2+ +310

Patrick Mahomes Rush Yards 30+ +145

*all odds provided by Bet365 unless otherwise noted

*all stats are courtesy of NFL+ Premium's NFL Pro ---> check it out here NFL Pro (requires subscription)