Looking ahead to Divisional Weekend Pt. 4

We're going to dive into the Sunday slate of Divisional Weekend and look at the statistical advantages for these two match ups. We're going to then unveil what our projection is for Ravens at Bills.

Let's goooooo!

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Game 4:

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills

Sunday, JAN-19 6:30PM ET

BAL +7 O/U 43 BUF -7

ORCHARD PARK, NY - What a treat to close out Divisional Weekend! Yet another regular season sequel we get treated to in the playoffs. The match up earlier this season was not close, the Ravens blew the Bills out in Baltimore 35-10. It happened all the way back in Week 4 and while both teams seem to be performing at peak level these aren't the same teams that played in Week 4. Injuries and adjustments have these two set for an exciting conclusion to the weekend.

With Zay Flowers out, Lamar will be forced to do one of two things... run or find another trustworthy target. He has one in Mark Andrews and the back half of the season the connection between the two reignited and we would expect Todd Monken to have some plays drawn up for Mark and Rashod Bateman. Check out Our Projections for a couple other Player Props.

Buffalo Pass D @ Home	Baltimore Pass O on Road
- 82.7 YPG (3rd) - 4.9 Pass YPP (2nd) - 12 Pass TDs allowed (16th) - 23 Sacks (13th) - 7.7% sack rate (9th) - 112 QBPs (10th) - 37.6% QBP (7th) - 2.68 secs TTP (14th) - 20.5% Blitz Rate% (27th)  - 3.7 yds of separation (27th)	- 127.0 YPG (2nd) - 8.0 Pass YPP (3rd) - 23 Pass TDs (1st) - 14 Sacks Allowed (5th) - 5.2% Sack Rate Allowed (5th) - 100 QBPs Allowed (14th) - 34.1% QBP Rate (17th) - 3.07 secs Opp. TTP (1st) - 3.22 secs TTT (1st) - 42.8% Opp. Blitz Rate (32nd) - 1196 YACatch (2nd) - 4.4 Yds Separation (1st)

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Little to be said here... King Henry, Lamar Jackson... should be able to have their way on the ground. We think that Henry will do his thing and go for 100+ check out Our Projections to see if we like anything else with the Baltimore rushing game.

Bills Rush D @ Home	Baltimore Rush O on Road
- 54.3 YPG (9th) - 4.8 Rush YPP (28th) - 4 Rush TDs allowed (3rd) - 32 10+ yard rushes allowed (27th) - 19.3% Run Stuff Rate% (9th) - 3.35 YAC/Att (27th) - 1.47 YBC/Att (19th) - 49.5% Opp. Rush Inside% 6th) - 49.5% Opp. Rush Outside% (22nd) - 63.5% Light Box% (2nd) - 4.2% Stacked Box% (32nd)	- 103.5 YPG (1st) - 6.0 Rush YPP (1st) - 11 Rush TDs (6th) - 49 10+ Yds Rushes (1st) - 13.4% Run Stuffed Rate (4th) - 3.50 RYAC/Att (5th) - 2.55 RYBC/Att (1st) - 39.4% Rush Inside (26th) - 57.9% Rush Outside (8th) - 31.5% Opp. Light Box (4th) - 29.8% opp. Stacked Box (32nd)

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Josh Allen!!! Is he the MVP? Can he put the team on his back and send Baltimore back down I-95. I think Josh Allen is on a mission and tonight is his opportunity to perform his opus. Baltimore has a pretty exploitable weakness in their secondary and Josh should be able to exploit that. Which receivers? Check out Our Projections below to see.

Buffalo Pass O @ Home	Baltimore Pass D on Road
- 108.9 YPG (18th) - 7.5 Pass YPP (3rd) - 18 Pass TDs (7th) - 5 Sacks allowed (1st) - 2.0% Sack % (1st) - 79 QBPs (5th) - 29.4% QBP % (8th) - 2.88 secs TTPA (5th) - 30.7% Opp Blitz % - 3.8 yds separation (5th)	- 141.6 YPG (30th) - 6.4 Pass YPP Allowed (21st) - 15 Pass TDs Allowed (22nd) - 29 Sacks (2nd) - 7.5% Sack Rate (6th) - 114 QBPs (7th) - 29.6% QBP Rate (27th) - 2.78 secs TTP (24th) - 2.73 secs Opp. TTT (11th) - 0.88 secs Get-Off (30th) - 22.6% Blitz Rate (24th) - 1219 YACatch (30th) - 3.1 yds separation (2nd)

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Buffalo has been committed to the run throughout the season maybe even to a fault at times. Baltimore is very stout on the defense rush boasting a top 3 defense which should be tested. Both Allen and Cook can run just like their counter-parts on the other side of the field. We shall see!

Buffalo Rush O @ Home	Baltimore Rush D on Road
- 59.6 YPG (15th) - 4.4 Rush YPP (16th) - 15 rush TDs (2nd) - 24 10+ yds rushes (17th) - 18.5% Stuffed Rate% (25th) - 3.21 RYAC/Att (8th) - 1.19 RYBC/Att (21st) - 44.0% Inside Rsh% (20th) - 52.2% Outside Rush% (16th) - 36.6% Opp. Light Box% (28th) - 28.0% Opp. Stacked Box% (3rd)	- 42.2 YPG (4th) - 3.5 Rush YPP (1st) - 7 Rush TDs Allowed (12th) - 14 10+ Yds Rushes Allowed (2nd) - 20.2% Run Stuff Rate (3rd) - 2.47 RYAC/Att (3rd) - 1.09 RYBC/Att (7th) - 55.7% Opp. Rush Inside (31st) - 41.9% Opp. Rush Outside (2nd) - 40.4% Light Box (20th) - 25.1% Stacked Box (6th)

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Our Projections:

Weather will also play a role in this game but, not in the same manner as the early game. Expect this to be a high scoring affair. Maybe like a shoot-out like last night. We like Buffalo ML and OVER 52.

Game Picks:

Buffalo Bills ML -105

Over / Under 52.5 OVER -104

Correct Score: Ravens 30 - Bills 33 +15000 *odds by BetMGM

Player Props:

Rashod Bateman Receptions 3+ -210

Mark Andrews Receptions 4+ -150

Lamar Jackson Passing TDs 2+ -115

Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards o/u 51.5 OVER -110

Dawson Knox Receptions 3+ +320

Flyers:

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards 20+ +145

Dawson Knox 1st TD Scorer +3300

Josh Allen Passing TDs 3+ +350

*all odds provided by Bet365 unless otherwise noted

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