Looking ahead to Super Wild Card Weekend Pt. 6

We're going to dive into the Monday finale of Wild Card Weekend and look at the statistical advantages for this final match up. We're going to then unveil what our projections are for Vikings at Rams.

Let's goooooo!

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams *played in Glendale, AZ

Game 6:

Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams

Monday, JAN-13 8:00PM ET

MIN -2 O/U 47.5 LAR +2

GLENDALE, AZ - First and foremost I want to express my condolences to everyone who has been impacted by the fires in California. As a Colorado native we are no strangers to the devastation left behind after fires and I can't imagine the scale being in such densely residential areas. If you are able please donate! redcross.com/nfl

On to the game... the game has been out of LA and to the home of the Arizona Cardinals. This is certainly an unprecedented move and leads to some questions about home field, fans, families, field familiarity... ? It is well known that the Rams do not have not a true home field advantage so this move to Glendale isn't as big as it could be for other teams. However, the Vikings should be well represented in the stands (a nice little vacay from the tundra in Minnesota) and bringing the chant... SKOL! SKOL! SKOL! Let's put some numbers out there and see if we can't find Easter Eggs.

This is pretty lopsided, Minnesota's Passing game is markedly better than what the Rams passing defense has been this year. While Darnold had a rough week in Week 18 against the Lions, the Rams defense is exactly what he needs to get back on track but, can he? or is he seeing the Ghosts from the Jets' days? There are a few Player Props. we like for the Minnesota passing offense, check 'em out in Our Projections.

Los Angeles R Pass D @ Home	Minnesota Pass O on Road
- 121.8 YPG (29th) - 6.8 Pass YPP (29th) - 17 Pass TDs allowed (32nd) - 18 Sacks (18th) - 5.6% Sack Rate % (24th) - 2.87 secs Opp. TTT - 109 QBPs (13th) - 33.7% QBP Rate% (18th) - 2.79 secs TTP (30th) - 0.85 secs Get-Off (16th) - 30.0% Blitz Rate% (11th) - 1115 YACatch (29th) - 3.4 yds separation (13th)	- 107.2 YPG (14th) - 6.6 Pass YPP (10th) - 14 Pass TDs (8th) - 17 Sacks Allowed (10th) - 6.2% Sacks allowed% (14th) - 3.11 secs TTT (2nd) - 113 QBPs (21st) - 38.8% QBP Rate% (27th) - 2.86 secs TTP (5th) - 26.2% Opp. Blitz% (12th) - 877 YACatch (25th) - 3.3 yds separation (25th)

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Minnesota brought in Aaron Jones from in-division rival Green Bay Packers but, it hasn't quite met the expectations sought. Just look below and see that on the road the Vikings cannot run the ball and the Rams defense cannot stop the run at home. Aaron Jones only had 58 yards back in Week 8, is this a repeat of that performance? worse, since it's a playoff game? There is apprehension on any Vikings rushing props, tough angles.

Los Angeles Rush D @ Home	Minnesota Rush O on Road
- 68.9 YPG (28th) - 4.8 Rush YPP (27th) - 8 Rush TDs allowed (21st) - 27 10+ yds rushes allowed (22nd) - 14.3% Run Stuff % (24th) - 3.18 RYAC/Att (19th) - 1.63 YBC/Att (23rd) - 47.8% Opp. Rush Inside% (22nd) - 49.4% Opp. Rush Outside% (10th) - 40.0% Light Box% (13th) - 22.0% Stacked Box% (20th)	- 51.2 YPG (25th) - 3.8 Rush YPP (30th) - 4 Rush TDs (28th) - 20 10+ yds rushes (27th) - 15.4% Run Stuffed% (16th) - 2.70 RYAC/Att (29th) - 1.17 RYBC/Att (19th) - 44.7% Rush Inside% (19th) - 50.0% Rush Outside% (18th) - 39.0% Rush Opp. Light Box% (20th) - 16.7% Rush Opp. Stacked Box% (25th)

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Brian Flores has confused a lot of QBs this season and that Vikings defense has thrived off of big plays this season. Will Stafford be able to protect the football? In the Week 8 match Stafford threw 4 TDs and 1 INT en route to the Rams 30 to 20 victory. Stafford averaged over 230 yards per game and 20 TDs. It seemed like Stafford rose to his level of competition all year, putting up big numbers against the Bills, the Eagles, the Vikings... can he do it again?

Los Angeles R Pass O @ Home	Minnesota Pass D on Road
- 125.9 YPG (7th) - 6.4 Pass YPP (15th) - 12 Pass TDs (16th) - 19 Sacks allowed (15th) - 5.7% Sacks allowed rate% (11th) - 2.73 secs TTT (21st) - 105 QBPs (16th) - 31.% QBP Rate% (13th) - 2.49 secs TTP (31st) - 26.2% Opp. Blitz Rate% (12th) - 1178 YACatch (10th) - 3.8 yds separation (9th)	- 118.2 YPG (24th) - 6.1 Pass YPP (14th) - 15 Pass TDs allowed (24th) - 21 Sacks (12th) - 6.2% Sack Rate% (16th) - 2.78 secs Opp. TTT - 117 QBPs (4th) - 34.% QBP Rate% (12th) - 2.59 secs TTP (8th) - 0.83 secs Get-Off (15th) - 34.4% Blitz Rate% (5th) - 1097 YACatch (19th) - 4.0 yds separation (32nd)

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Minnseota's rush defense is the better half of the unit and it's not really close. Normally we would say that this is an immediate advantage to Minnesota but, the Rams offense can survive without really having to run the ball thanks to Stafford. Although, Kyren Williams did thrash this defense in Week 8 for 97 yards. I assume Brian Flores will sure some of that up... but we have to be mindful about how McVay draws up plays that look like one thing and then lead to a huge play. This will be a fun rematch of Week 8.

Los Angeles R Rush O @ Home	Minnesota Rush D on Road
- 53.2 YPG (19th) - 3.9 Rush YPP (24th) - 10 Rush TDs (11th) - 20 10+ yds rushes (27th) - 16.6% Run Stuffed% (19th) - 2.87 RYAC/Att (22nd) - 1.01 RYBC/Att (23rd) - 57.9% Rush Inside% (3rd) - 39.6% Rush Outside% (29th) - 49.4% Rush Opp. Light Box% (11th) - 10.6% Rush Opp. Stacked Box% (32nd)	- 39.5 YPG (2nd) - 3.8 Rush YPP (3rd) - 5 Rush TDs allowed (9th) - 18 10+ yds rushes allowed (3rd) - 19.2% Run Stuff Rate% (7th) - 2.73 RYAC/Att (8th) - 1.09 RYBC/Att (8th) - 50.8% Opp. Rush Inside% (25th) - 47.5% Opp. Rush Outside% (10th) - 32.8% Light Box% (3rd) - 18.1% Stacked Box% (8th)

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Our Projections:

The final ManningCast of the year and that is truly a shame. The game will hopefully live up the excitement we saw in Week 8 and, I hope for at least a few hours this can be a distraction from the reality that the folks of LA and the Rams organization are enduring.

There were 50 points scored in Week 8 and easily could have been more. We are on the over 47.5, if you're feeling frisky look at an alternate over. The sides scare me.

Game Picks:

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams o/u 47.5 OVER 47.5 -110

Los Angeles Rams Team Total over 23.5 -110

Minnesota Vikings Team Total over 23.5 -135

Correct Score: Vikings 27 - Rams 26 +20000 *odds by BetMGM

Player Props:

Matthew Stafford Pass Attempts o/u 32.5 OVER 32.5 -125

Matthew Stafford Pass Attempts 35+ +135

Sam Darnold Passing TDs 2+ -200

Matthew Stafford Passing TDs 2+ -120

Justin Jefferson Receptions o/u 6.5 OVER 6.5 -115

Some flyers:

Kyren Williams Anytime TD -138

Demarcus Robinson Anytime TD +300

Darnold 2+ Pass TDs / Stafford 2+ TDs +150

Kyren Williams 2+ Anytime TDs +375

*all odds provided by Bet365 unless otherwise noted

*all stats are courtesy of NFL+ Premium's NFL Pro ---> check it out here NFL Pro (requires subscription)