Looking ahead to Super Wild Card Weekend Pt. 1

We're going to dive into the Saturday slate of Wild Card Weekend and look at the statistical advantages for these two match ups. We're going to then unveil what our projection is for Chargers at Texans.

Let's goooooo!

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans

Game 1:

Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans

Saturday, JAN-11 4:30PM ET

LAC -3 O/U 42.5 HOU +3

HOUSTON, TX - We find ourselves in a familiar spot being in Houston on a Wild Card Weekend Saturday. The Texans are 5-2 on WCW Saturday which is an intriguing stat to compound with the fact home underdogs are 20-9-1 ATS during WCW. We can follow these trends however, let's take a deeper dive into the numbers of both the Texans and the Chargers to see if they align with the trends.

Houston's pass defense loves to rush the QB, ranking inside the top 7 in metrics like pass yards per play (YPP) at 5.1 ranking 4th. 3rd in sacks, and 2nd in sack rate at 9.1% of drop backs. The Chargers have allowed 27 sacks putting them in 25th. Chargers O-Line has helped protect Herbert better than years past however, if Herbert is under duress it could make the Chargers one dimensional or lead to bad decisions... Herbert has unlocked two of his favorite targets in Ladd McConkey and Will Dissly. Can these two get enough separation before the pass rush gets home? Something tells me that Harbaugh will have some plays drawn up specific to quick releases. We'll give the slight advantage to the Houston pass defense but it is slight.

Houston Pass D @ Home	Los Angeles C Pass O on Road
- 81.5 YPG (2nd) - 5.1 Pass YPP (4th) - 11 Pass TDs allowed (11th) - 26 Sacks (3rd) - 9.1% Sack Rate% (2nd) - 125 QBPs (5th) - 43.6% QBP% (1st) - 2.75 secs TTP (20th) - 0.82 secs Get-Off (7th) - 29.3% Blitz% (14th) - 945 YACatch (12th) - 3.4 yds separation (11th)	- 116.5 YPG (7th) - 6.7 Pass YPP (9th) - 12 Pass TDs (14th) - 27 Sacks allowed (25th) - 9.1% Sack% (26th) - 2.90 secs TTT (10th) - 108 QBPs (17th) - 34.8% QBP% (18th) - 2.72 secs TTP (14th) - 29.3% Blitz% (21st) - 937 YACatch (19th) - 3.5 yds separation (12th)

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Now let's look at the rushing defense for the Texans vs the Chargers rushing offense. After looking at the numbers Texans again hold the advantage on the defensive side of the rushing game. Texans give up some big plays in the rushing game allowing 36 rushes of 10+ yards which ranks 29th and allows 1.85 yards before contact, which ranks 27th. Houston loves to stack the box, 25.1% of the time and the Chargers run the ball 26.9% of the time on stacked boxes, that ranks 4th. The Chargers do have depth in their backfield. Dobbins should carry the load and if Gus Edwards' ankle is healthy then the rushing game could open up play action for Herbert. Additionally, Herbert could use his legs, especially if he gets flushed from the pocket and coverage is tight. Look at Herbert's rushing yards total, OVER! The advantage is still slightly leaning toward the Texans here. You'll see later our Player Prop picks... Herbert, Herbert, Herbert rush yards over...

Houston Rush D @ Home	Los Angeles C Rush O on Road
- 63.6 YPG (24th) - 4.8 Rush YPP (26th) - 7 Rush TDs allowed (14th) - 36 10+yds rushes allowed (29th) - 19.4% Rush Stuff % (7th) - 2.87 RYAC/Att (12th) - 1.85 RYBC/Att (27th) **BAD** - 41.9% Opp. Inside Rush% (9th) - 56.4% Opp. Outside Rush% (26th) - 31.3% Opp. Rush Light Box% (7th) - 25.1% Stacked Box% (8th)	- 58.6 YPG (15th) - 3.8 Rush YPP (29th) - 7 Rush TDs (18th) - 23 10+ yds rushes (22nd) - 18.8% Run Stuffed % (27th) - 2.66 YAC/Att (30th) - 1.22 YBC/Att (16th) - 47.3% Rush Inside % (15th) - 47.7% Rush Outside % (22nd) - 30.0% Rush Opp. Light Box% (30th) **NEVER RUNS ON LIGHT** - 26.9% Rush Opp. Stacked Box% (4th) **RUSHES A LOT ON STACKED BOXES**

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Let's take a look at the Chargers on the defensive side of the ball and the Texans' offense. Starting with the Passing Advantage, Houston's offense has regressed from it's effectiveness from last year. Injuries certainly prevented Stroud to get chemistry with his wideouts, Collins and Dell only played together in 9 of the 17 games. This could explain why the Houston Passing game has ranked among the worst in the league. As bad as the Chargers passing offense has been at protecting Herbert, the Texans is worse. The Texans rank 26th in QB pressures (QBPs) and 30th in QBP%. Defenses are blitzing the Texans on 23.3% of snaps and the Texans have given up 25 sacks at home this year. Meanwhile, the Chargers defensive backs are 1st in the league in separation yards, only allowing 3.1 yards of separation (HOU 20th in yds of separation off.) and allowing a league low 801 yards after catch (YAC) [HOU 24th in off. YAC]. The Houston O-Line is 20th in the league in Time to Pressure allowing the pass rush to get to the QB in 2.62 seconds and the Chargers are 7th in the league in Get-Off at 0.80 seconds. We're going to give the Chargers Pass defense the edge here, expecially with Harbaugh motivating these guys.

Houston Pass O @ Home	Los Angeles C Pass D on Road
- 108.0 YPG (19th) - 6.1 Pass YPP (19th) - 10 Pass TDs (23rd) - 25 Sacks allowed (26th) - 8.3% Sack Rate% (25th) - 2.97 secs TTT (4th) - 122 QBPs (26th) - 39.0% QBP Rate% (30th) - 2.62 secs TTP (20th) - 23.3% blitz rate % (3rd) - 942 YACatch (24th) - 3.5 yds separation (20th)	- 94.8 YPG (4th) - 5.1 Pass YPP (2nd) - 9 Pass TDs allowed (5th) - 20 Sacks (14th) - 5.8% Sack rate % (19th) - 2.75 secs Opp. TTT (14th) - 114 QBPs (8th) - 33.3% QBP Rate% (15th) - 2.81 secs TTP (26th) - 0.80 secs Get-Off (7th) - 22.8% Blitz Rate% (23rd) - 801 YACatch (1st) - 3.1 yds separation (1st)

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Finally, let's compare the Texans rushing offense against the Chargers rushing defense. If you think the Texans passing game isn't good, you won't be impressed with their rushing game...in fact, I'd say you're going to be disgusted with the rushing game (and I say this as a Joe Mixon fantasy owner this season). The Texans rank last or nearly last in every major statistical category rushing while at home. 31st in yards per game at a measly 35.1 avg., 3.2 rush yards per play (32nd), only 16 rushes of 10+ yards, good for 29th. The Texans backfield gets stuffed on 25.7% of their rushes ranking 31st... and ranking DFL in yards before contact at 0.64. The Chargers rush defense is 8th in run stuff doing it on 14% of runs. The Chargers use a light box 59.3% of the snaps and the Texans only run on light boxes 41.2% of snaps. If the Texans decide to change their strategy this could be an opportunity for the Texans to exploit something...maybe? If the Texans are going to score we don't think it's going to come from a long run. We're going to give the advantage to the Chargers here.

Houston Rush O @ Home	Los Angeles C Rush D on Road
- 35.1 YPG (31st) - 3.2 Rush YPP (32nd) - 4 Rush TDs (31st) - 16 10+ yds rushes (29th) - 25.7% rush stuffed rate% (31st) - 2.57 RYAC/Att (27th) - 0.64 YBC/Att (32nd) - 42.2% Rush Inside % (25th) - 55.6% Rush Outside % (8th) - 41.2% Rush Opp. Light Box% (21st) - 20.9% Rush Opp. Stacked Box% (18th)	- 54.2 YPG (10th) - 4.3 Rush YPP (14th) - 29 10+ yds rushes (20th) - 14.0% rush stuff rate% (8th) - 3.03 RYAC/Att (19th) - 1.31 RYBC/Att (12th) - 39.7% Opp. Rush Inside% (5th) - 57.0% Opp. Rush Outside % (28th) - 59.3% Light Box% (30th) - 9.8% Stacked Box% (3rd)

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Our Projections:

Throughout the season our algorithm went 11-4 in picking Houston Texan games this season, with a correct pick against the Bills and and games close and covering like the Packers and Lions. We went 9-7 with the cHargers however, most of our losses were thinking the Chargers would take a year to adopt the Harbaugh way... and now we see that the culture was exaactly what the Chargers needed. The Chargers exceed our algorithm scoring expectation by 54 points! Now our projections for the game and a few player props!

Game Picks:

Los Angeles Chargers -3 +100

Los Angeles Chargers Team Total over 20.5 -140

Over / Under 43.5 UNDER -135

Correct Score: Texans 17 - Chargers 23 +10000 *odds by BetMGM

Player Props:

Justin Herbert Rush Yards Escalator | 20+ -155 | 30++200 | 40+ +375

Will Dissly Receptions 4+ +125

Joe Mixon Rush Yards under 70.5 -110

*all odds provided by Bet365 unless otherwise noted

*all stats are courtesy of NFL+ Premium's NFL Pro ---> check it out here NFL Pro (requires subscription)