Looking ahead to Super Wild Card Weekend Pt. 2

We're going to dive into the Saturday slate of Wild Card Weekend and look at the statistical advantages for these two match ups. We're going to then unveil what our projection is for Steelers at Ravens.

Let's goooooo!

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Game 2:

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Saturday, JAN-11 8:00PM ET

PIT +10 O/U 43.5 HOU -10

BALTIMORE, MD - Here we are again... the 3rd meeting not a lot to write up here. Divisional foes, rubber match... and two teams going in opposite directions coming into the playoffs. The Steelers were averaging 23.3 points per game going into their Bye Week (Week 9) but, since then averaging 21.4 pts and one of those games was the 44 point shootout against the Bengals (Week 13 PIT 44 - CIN 38). To make their offense seem less appealing, they've only scored 20 or more points since that Bengals shootout and it was the very next week against Cleveland (Week 14 CLE 14 - PIT 27). The Steelers though limped into the playoffs offensively avering 14.25 points per game in their last 4. To be fair, they played the Eagles (Week 15 PIT 13 - PHI 27), Ravens (Week 16 PIT 17 - BAL 34), Chiefs (Week 17 KC 29 - PIT 10), Bengals (Week 18 CIN 19 - PIT -17). We'll look at Pittsburgh's offense looks against the Ravens... and that's all we need to really dissect from the Steelers chances to upset the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Ravens averaged 29.4 points per game before their Bye Week (Week 14) and since.... they're averaging 33.75 points per game!!! Granted, two of those games came against teams with less than 7 combined wins on the season.

Wilson should have time to pass but will his outlets get open? When these two teams played in Week 16 George Pickens sat out with injury and Calvin Austin III and Jaylen Warren were Wilson's top targets each getting 5 looks. George should be in for this game but with the recent struggles of the offense, will frustration set in if he doesn't get the ball or the offense starts slow? We're going to side with the team coming in on fire and that's the Ravens.

Baltimore Pass D @ Home	Pittsburgh Pass O on Road
- 102.5 YPG (12th) - 5.7 Pass YPP (9th) -12 Pass TDs allowed (15th) - 25 Sacks (7th) - 7.8% Sack Rate% (8th) - 3.08. secs Opp. TTT (32nd) - 107 QBPs (16th) - 33.5% QBP Rate% (19th) - 2.99 secs TTP (32nd) - 0.92 secs Get-Off (31st) - 17.9% Blitz Rate% (29th) - 853 YACatch (4th) - 3.4 yds separation (8th)	- 104.1 YPG (19th) - 6.4 Pass YPP (14th) - 12 Pass TDs (13th) - 25 Sacks Allowed (23rd) - 9.0% Sack Allowed% (24th) - 2.98 secs TTT (5th) - 124 QBPs (25th) - 40.5% QBP Rate% (29th) - 2.88 secs TTP (4th) - 26.0% Opp. Blitz% (11th) - 924 YACatch (20th) - 3.5 yds separation (18th)

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While on paper the Pittsburgh offense looks like it could have a slight advantage running the ball until you see the Ravens rush D is a damn wall! While Najee rushed for 1000+ yards, again... we don't have faith that he can be the answer for the Steelers offense. However, an angle we do like from the Steelers backfield will be highlighted in our projections at the end. In the Week 16 match up between these two teams Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for 90 yards on 21 carries. Where we think there is an opportunity, is if Pittsburgh's interior O-Linemen can open up holes and let the Harris / Warren tandem run inside the tackles.

Baltimore Rush D @ Home	Pittsburgh Rush O on Road
- 37.9 YPG (1st) - 3.6 Rush YPP (1st) - 5 Rush TDs allowed (6th) - 11 10+ yds rushes allowed (1st) - 19.4% Run Stuff Rate% (6th) - 2.53 RYAC/Att (3rd) - 1.07 RYBC/Att (8th) - 55.0% Opp. Rush Inside% (32nd) - 42.2% opp. Rush Outside% (1st) - 45.0% Light Box% (13th) - 26.1% Stacked Box% (6th)	- 66.2 YPG (8th) - 3.9 Rush YPP (27th) - 8 Rush TDs (15th) - 31 10+ yds rushes (10th) - 18.2% Run Stuffed% (23rd) - 2.88 RYAC/Att (21st) - 1.08 RYBC/Att (24th) - 41.6% Rush Inside% (24th) - 55.9% Rush Outside% (10th) - 38.1% Rush Opp. Light Box% (22nd) - 25.5% Rush Opp. Stacked Box% (7th)

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The first thing we will address is that since Pittsburgh's Bye Week (Week 9) they have allowed 25.3 points per game. The Steelers conceded 4 100+ rush yard games in the last 8 with a couple that didn't get to 100 were a decent run away from it. Two of those 100+ yard games came from, you guessed it, King Henry. The most recent one coming Week 16 when Henry ran for 162 yards on 24 carries, no tuddies though... will he get in on Saturday (Henry Anytime TD -175)? At home the Ravens seemingly are running downhill no matter which endzone they're going for... nothing about this other than maybe, just maybe the Steeler defense can make a stand or two more than they normally would since it's Super Wild Card Weekend... we give the Ravens the edge when they're running the ball.

Baltimore Rush O @ Home	Pittsburgh Rush D on Road
- 84.1 YPG (4th) - 5.5 Rush YPP (3rd) - 10 Rush TDs (8th) - 40 10+ yds rushes (4th) - 16.0% Run Stuff rate% (15th) - 3.45 RYAC/Att (3rd) - 1.97 RYBC/Att (5th) - 43.5% Rush Inside% (21st) - 53.4% Rush Outside% (13th) - 42.7% Rush Opp. Light Box% (16th) - 26.7% Rush Opp. Stacked Box% (29th)	- 54.8 YPG (11th) - 3.9 Rush YPP (6th) - 10 Rush TDs allowed (25th) - 25 10+ yds rushes (14th) - 18.6% rush stuff rate% (10th) - 2.95 RYAC/Att (16th) - 1.02 RYBC/Att (6th) - 50.8% Opp. Rush inside% (26th) - 46.2% Opp. Rush Outside% (8th) - 38.6% Light Box% (11th) - 30.9% Stacked Box% (4th)

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Onto maybe the best chance for the Steelers to affect the game, Baltimore's Passing Offense vs Pittsburgh's Passing Defense. Zay Flowers is officially out thus limiting Lamar's target base and, it will be the first game all season that Lamar is without his favorite playmaker. While it may impact some of the frequency of "explosive plays" there are still 3 bonafide pass catchers in Bateman, Andrews and Likely. You'll see in Our Projections section we will have a couple plays for a couple of those guys. The pass rush is going to have to be in overdrive for to keep Lamar from sitting in the pocket and finding his receivers. That could be one way they impact the game...can they do it?? We will find out but... Lamar over 48.5 rush yards and maybe look back up to the section above... Derrick Henry over on all of it...

Baltimore Pass O @ Home	Pittsburgh Pass D on Road
- 110.4 YPG (17th) - 8.1 Pass YPP (1st) - 18 Pass TDs (6th) - 10 Sacks allowed (3rd) - 4.3% Sack Allowed Rate% (5th) - 3.06 secs TTT (2nd) - 81 QBPs (6th) - 31.5% QBP rate% (14th) - 2.94 secs TTP (2nd) - 31.5% Opp. Blitz Rate% (25th) - 959 YACatch (21st) - 4.1 yds separation (2nd)	- 115.4 YPG (20th) - 6.5 Pass YPP (22nd) - 12 Pass TDs allowed (11th) - 19 Sacks (16th) - 6.1% Sack Rate% (17th) -2.81 secs Opp. TTT (11th) - 113 QBPs (10th) - 36.0% QBP Rate% (7th) - 2.68 secs TTP (16th) - 0.83 secs Get-Off (18th) - 29.6% Blitz Rate% (11th) - 1036 YACatch (16th) - 3.3 yds separation (8th)

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Our Projections:

Game Picks:

Baltimore Ravens -3.5 / OVER 40.5 +100

Baltimore Ravens Team Total over 27.5 -110

Over / Under 44 OVER +101

Correct Score: Steelers 20 - Ravens 27 +9000 *odds by BetMGM

Player Props:

Lamar Jackson Rush Yards 50+ -115

Rashod Bateman Receptions 4+ +125

Mark Andrews Receptions 5+ +135

Derrick Henry Rush Yards 96.5 OVER -110

*all odds provided by Bet365 unless otherwise noted

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