Looking ahead to Super Wild Card Weekend Pt. 3

We're going to dive into the Sunday slate of Wild Card Weekend and look at the statistical advantages for these two match ups. We're going to then unveil what our projection is for Broncos at Bills.

Let's goooooo!

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Game 3:

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills

Sunday, JAN-12 1:00PM ET

DEN +8.5 O/U 47.5 BUF -8.5

ORCHARD PARK, NY - This is a rematch of Week 10 of the 2023 season. Denver went into Orchard Park with Russell Wilson and pulled out a 24 to 22 win. Granted, that was a regular season game and a different QB for Sean Payton. MVP candidate and likely recipient, Josh Allen has his career defining run ahead of him. Allen is on a war path...is this his year? Since the Bills' Bye Week (Week 12) they averaged 34.1 points per game!!! Insane! But wait, the Broncos are averaging 30 points per game since their Bye Week (Week 14). This willl be a fun game and out the gate we think over, actually love OVER!.

This game on the surface looks like a showdown of two gunslingers! Which I think it is, however there are indicators on both sides off the ball that could make this game very interesting and we'll start with the Broncos Passing offense versus the Bills' passing defense. Denver doesn't allow sacks, and gets great separation on the edges, if Bo Nix can protect the football then I believe we could see a coming out party in the playoffs for a rookie and a massive upset. If the Bills can generate pressure then I think we could see at least one turnover and that may be one turnover too many to come back from. Check Our Projections section below for some Player Props we like out of the Broncos passing offense... and a long shot from the Bills defense.

Buffalo Pass D @ Home	Denver Pass O on Road
- 82.7 YPG (3rd)  - 4.9 Pass YPP (2nd)  - 12 Pass TDs allowed (16th)  - 23 Sacks (13th)  - 7.7% sack rate (9th)  - 112 QBPs (10th)  - 37.6% QBP (7th)  - 2.68 secs TTP (14th)  - 20.5% Blitz Rate% (27th)   - 3.7 yds of separation (27th)	- 97.9 YPG (25th) - 5.2 Pass YPP (27th) - 11 Pass TDs (18th) - 13 Sacks allowed (3rd) - 4.1% Sack Allowed Rate% (2nd) - 2.87 secs TTT (14th) - 97 QBPs allowed (12th) - 27.6% QBP Rate% (4th) - 2.76 secs TTP Against (10th) - 33.2% Blitz Rate% (24th) - 3.9 yards of separation (2nd) - 1003 YACatch (13th)

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Sean Payton and the Broncos have proven their commitment to running the ball, especially when on the road. The Bills are an interesting rush defense team, only allowing 54.3 rush YPG at home but nearly a league worst of 4.8 rush yards per play and they have allowed 32 rushes of 10+ yards. The Broncos like to run inside the tackles and if the Bronco O-Line can own the line of scrimmage this could help open up Bo to push the ball downfield. We'd tend to give the Bills the advatange here solely based off home field buuut, if the Broncos can dominate the line of scrimmage look out for some potential long runs... we'll have a couple of Player Props that are intriguing in Our Projections.

Bills Rush D @ Home	Denver Rush O on Road
- 54.3 YPG (9th) - 4.8 Rush YPP (28th) - 4 Rush TDs allowed (3rd) - 32 10+ yard rushes allowed (27th) - 19.3% Run Stuff Rate% (9th) - 3.35 YAC/Att (27th) - 1.47 YBC/Att (19th) - 49.5% Opp. Rush Inside% 6th) - 49.5% Opp. Rush Outside% (22nd) - 63.5% Light Box% (2nd) - 4.2% Stacked Box% (32nd)	- 63.6 YPG (10th) - 4.5 Rush YPP (12th) - 6 rush TDs (20th) - 31 10+ Yds rushes (9th) - 14.5% rush stuffed rate (8th) - 2.8 RYAC/Att (27th) - 1.75 RYBC/Att (7th) - 51.2% Inside Rsh % (9th) - 45.5% Outside Rsh% (24th) - 21.5% Opp Stacked Box % (9th) - 38.0% Opp Light Box % (23rd)

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Now we turn to the Buffalo Offense which, doesn't need a whole lot of introduction. Likely the league's MVP is leading the Bills' offense and one of the Defensive Player of the Year candidates in Patrick Surtain II. While the Broncos have been a formidable defense they do give up a ton of yards through the air on the road... nearly 124 yards per game. If the Broncos secondary can not commit penalties and stick on the receivers the pass rush could get home to Allen or at least make him break the pocket and be forced to throw on the run. This is a recipe for Allen to either go over his rush yards or throw an INT. The Bills O-Line has done a great job in protecting allen this year at home, allowing only 5 sacks which leads the league. As we mentioned about the Bills D and Broncos O, whoever owns the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball will likely play from ahead as their offense will be able to run or pass. Allen rushing yards over? uhh yea... One final thought here... Broncos have struggled against good pass catching Tight Ends, this could be a big spot for Kincaid... look at receptions and maybe an anytime TD.

Buffalo Pass O @ Home	Denver Pass D on Road
- 108.9 YPG (18th) - 7.5 Pass YPP (3rd) - 18 Pass TDs (7th) - 5 Sacks allowed (1st) - 2.0% Sack % (1st) - 79 QBPs (5th) - 29.4% QBP % (8th) - 2.88 secs TTPA (5th) - 30.5% Opp Blitz% (22nd) - 3.8 yds separation (5th)	- 123.9 YPG (28th) - 5.7 Pass YPP (7th) - 13 Pass TDs allowed (16th) - 39 Sacks (1st) - 9.9% Sack Rate% (1st) - 2.67 secs Opp. TTT (7th) - 144 QBPs (1st) - 36.6% QBP% (3rd) - 2.61 secs TTP (10th) - 0.76 Gett-Off (1st) - 37.9% Blitz% (1st) - 1215 YACatch (29th) - 3.6 yds separation (19th)

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The Bills rushing game is elite in 2 areas... scoring TDs at home and yards after contact. With the help of Allen and Cook having arguably their best seasons rushing ever, the Bills are ranked 2nd with 15!!! rushing TDs at home that's nearly 2 rushing TDs a game. Broncos run defense is solid but they need to rally to the ball and not allow Cook or Allen to get steam. keeping the Bills inside the tackles will benefit the Broncos. This is the most intriguing match up of all the units. Look at Cook and Allen rushing yards maybe not quite at their number but if you follow Our Projections you'll need to make sure that your book offers the alternate rush yards market.

Buffalo Rush O @ Home	Denver Rush D on Road
- 59.6 YPG (15th) - 4.4 Rush YPP (16th) - 15 rush TDs (2nd) - 24 10+ yds rushes (17th) - 18.5% Stuffed Rate% (25th) - 3.21 RYAC/Att (8th) - 1.19 RYBC/Att (21st) - 44.0% Inside Rsh% (20th) - 52.2% Outside Rush% (16th) - 36.6% Opp. Light Box% (28th) - 28.0% Opp. Stacked Box% (3rd)	- 51.9 YPG (8th) - 4.1 Rush YPP (9th) - 23 10+ yds rushes (13th) - 19.7% Stuff Rate% (5th) - 2.69 RYAC/Att (5th) - 1.47 YBC/Att (20th) - 45.9% Opp. Inside Rsh% (17th) - 50.0% Opp. Outside Rsh% (17th)   - 42.2% Opp. Rsh Light Box% (15th) - 24.3% Opp. Rush Stacked Box% (25th)

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Our Projections:

Not playing a homer since I really am a Cowboy fan, I know I know.... I really like the Broncos catching 8.5 here. Just last year these teams for all intents played each other. and the Broncos held their own. We'd even go as far to say the Broncos were a worse team then. This should be a fun way to kick off Wild Card Sunday!! We also looked at the over and liked it at 47 and if you can find a good priced 46.5 grab it, hell I'd feel comfortable all the way up to 48.5.

Game Picks:

Denver Broncos +8.5 -110

Denver Broncos Team Total over 20.5 +155

Over / Under 44 OVER +101

Correct Score: Broncos 23 - Bills 29 +17500 *odds by BetMGM

Player Props:

Josh Allen Rush Yards 40+ -120

Bo Nix Pass TDs 2+ +145

Bo Nix Rush Yards 26.5 OVER -110

Audric Estime Rush Yards 20.5 OVER -105

Some flyers:

Von Miller Anytime Sack +240 Audric Estime Rush Yards 30+ +210

Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD +210

Nate Adkins Anytime TD +800

*all odds provided by Bet365 unless otherwise noted

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