Looking ahead to Super Wild Card Weekend Pt. 4

We're going to dive into the Sunday slate of Wild Card Weekend and look at the statistical advantages for these two match ups. We're going to then unveil what our projection is for Packers at Eagles.

Let's goooooo!

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Game 4:

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, JAN-12 4:30PM ET

GB +5 O/U 45.5 PHI -5

PHILADELPHIA, PA - The story going into this game is of course the drama in Philly and when isn't there drama in Philly? Hurts hasn't played in 3 weeks and just started offficially practicing this week! Will there be rust? Will he get hit again and go out? and on the other side, will Jordan Love cope with the loss of Christian Watson? He does have a lot targets he has looked to throughout the year. However, there were stretches where some of those targets "disappeared". We'll put it all together and try to find a couple plays that makes sense for a game that is a rematch of Week 1 in Sao Paolo, where "the field / playing surface" was the real winner.

Jordan Love is making his second appearance in the playoffs as a starting quarterback and while not completely similar, the circumstances surround this game against Philadelphia is a lot like his 1st playoff game last year against Dallas. He has to go on the road against a veteran QB and a hell of a defense. The Eagles have a good pass defense and will make it tough on Love to get through his progressions and now that Love is down a play making target, the Eagles secondary can clamp down Doubs, Reed, and Kraft... a lot folks have been talking up Dontayvion Wicks for the last few weeks (primarily fanatsy folks offering him up as a longshot) but, he has getting more involved the last few weeks, averaging 5 targets a game, hauling in an average of 3.6 of those targets. Look for him to help Jordan this week. The edge here is with the Eagles being at home and a wounded Green Bay WR corps.

Philadelphia Pass D @ Home	Green Bay Pass O on Road
- 89.6 YPG (5th) - 5.4 Pass YPP (5th) - 9 Pass TDs allowed (6th) - 17 Sacks (27th) - 5.7% Sack Rate% (23rd) - 2.74 secs Opp. TTT (6th) - 92 QBPs (28th) - 30.7% QBP Rate% (28th) - 2.65 secs TTP (10th) - 0.87 secs Get-Off (25th) - 20.7% Blitz Rate% (26th) - 867 YACatch (5th) - 3.5 yds separation (17th)	- 102.9 YPG (20th) - 8.2 Pass YPP (1st) - 11 Pass TDs (19th) - 13 Sacks Allowed (4th) - 6.1% Sack Allowed Rate% (11th) - 2.80 secs TTT (22nd) - 69 QBPs Allowed (1st) - 30.4% QBPs Allowed Rate% (9th) - 2.94 secs TTP (2nd) - 37.9% Opp. Blitz% (31st) - 1025 YACatch (11th) - 3.6 yds separation (11th)

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This is the match up that Matt LeFleur will likely exploit. Green Bay has done a great job of running the ball on the road this year and that's something to take note of considering who is the Packers division and those home field advantages play very similar to the hostility at the Linc, as long as there's no battery or snowball throwing... I would expect to see Matt stay patient with the run game if it doesn't get going right away. I do think the Green Bay O-Line can wear down the Eagles for a couple of long scoring drives, Green Bay just needs to convert Red Zone opportunities with TDs and not FGs if they want to win.

Philadelphia Rush D @ Home	Green Bay Rush O on Road
- 57.0 YPG (12th) - 4.3 Rush YPP (12th) - 5 Rush TDs allowed (8th) - 24 10+ yds rushes allowed (11th) - 15.5% Run Stuff Rate% (20th) - 3.05 RYAC/Att (18th) - 1.26 RYBC/Att (14th) - 47.8% Opp. Rush Inside% (23rd) - 50.4% Opp. Rush Outside% (14th) - 68.1% Light Box% (1st) - 7.1% Stacked Box% (31st)	- 54.5 YPG (10th) - 4.7 Rush YPP (10th) - 13 Rush TDs (4th) - 27 10+ yds rushes (15th) - 15.0% Run Stuffed% (12th) - 3.52 RYAC/Att(4th) - 1.19 RYBC/Att (18th) - 55.1% Rush Inside% (5th) - 41.9% Rush Outside% (28th) - 56.8% Rush Opp. Light Box% (3rd) - 15.0% Rush Opp. Stacked Box% (28th)

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Jalen Hurts has not played in 3 weeks due to a concussion suffered early in the Week 16 game against the Commanders. How will he look after missing all that time?On this we know shouldn't be affected is his ability to get rammed from behind during the "tush push' . Green Bay does get to the QB quite well, but will they be able to prevent Hurts from breaking a big run or hitting a deep throw to DeVonta Smith? AJ Brown likely has complained his way to a handful of receptions if not more if he catches all his targets. I would be remiss if I didn't mention Saquon catching a few out of the backfield... how can anyone forget the only blemish of Saquon's season? [a drop on a RB screen against Atlanta Week 2 on Monday Night] Only reason I bring it up is that Saquon will likely have a big role in chip blocking and then quickly turning around for the ball to be Hurts' outlet amidst the pass rush. Goeddert in the Red Zone is a problem, watch for a few targets down there.

Philadelphia Pass O @ Home	Green Bay Pass D on Road
- 112.9 YPG (15th)  - 7.1 Pass YPP (8th) - 16 Pass TDs (11th) - 18 Sacks allowed (14th) - 6.6% Sack allowed Rate% (17th) - 3.07 secs TTT (1st) - 92 QBPs (12th) - 30.6% QBP Rate% (9th) - 2.84 secs TTP - 36.0% Opp. Blitz Rate% (30th) - 971 YACatch (20th) - 3.4 yds separation (23th)	- 117.5 YPG (22nd) - 6.3 Pass YPP (15th) - 13 Pass TDs allowed (17th) - 26 Sacks (4th) - 7.7% Sack Rate% (5th) - 104 QBPs (19th) - 31.0% QBP Rate% (23rd) - 2.74 secs Opp. TTT (13th) - 2.70 secs TTP (20th) - 0.83 secs Get-Off (17th) - 19.6% Blitz Rate% (28th) - 1111 YACatch (22nd) - 3.7 yds separation (26th)

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And now for what we all came here for... the Eagles' rushing offense. Looking back all the way to Week 1, in Saquon's 1st game with the Eagles he ran for over 100 yards and 2 scores against this Packer defense [oh, and caught a TD out of the backfield see above ^^^]. Watch on 3rd and medium to short for Hurts to use his legs to pick these up. Hurts scrambles over 13% of the time on 3rd downs which is the highest in the league... (Hurts Rush Yards o/u 36.5 -110) I think Saquon is a little pissed off that he didn't get a chance to take on Eric Dickerson's regular season rushing record (2105 yards in 1984) missing it by just 100 yards. Does Saquon go over his number 103.5 this week? Like I said he will run with a little of that anger but I would lean to his combined Rushing and Receiving yards 125 at +110. Philly's O-Line is hungry to prove they're still top of the league even with Jason Kelce... oh yea and his replacement made it to the Pro Bowl (Cam Jergens).

Philadelphia Rush O @ Home	Green Bay Rush D on Road
- 87.1 YPG (2nd) - 4.4 Rush YPP (13th) - 11 Rush TDs (7th) - 38 10+ yds rushes (5th) - 16.0% Run Stuffed% (14th) - 2.53 RYAC/Att (29th) - 1.89 RYBC/Att (8th) - 46.0% Rush Inside% (15th) - 48.7% Rush Outside% (19th) - 51.6% Rush Opp. Light Box% (6th) - 22.6% Rush Opp. Stacked Box% (13th)	- 49.5 YPG (6th) - 4.0 Rush YPP (8th) - 8 Rush TDs allowed (17th) - 20 10+ yds rushes allowed (6th) - 17.1% Run Stuff Rate% (17th) - 3.18 RYAC/Att (25th) - 0.83 RYBC/Att (4th) - 50.0% Opp. Rush Inside% (23rd) - 48.6% Opp. Rush Outside% (13th) - 44.8% Light Box% (18th) - 22.9% Stacked Box% (21st)

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Our Projections:

Look, as a Cowboys fan... I hate both of these teams but fandom is not going to get in the way of what the right plays are here. The Eagles for the second straight season prove to be a juggernaut throughout the regular season then find a way to implode heading into the playoffs whether it's through injury or drama within the media. Hurts just making it back for this game and we think Philly will win if they commit to the ground game and as a team rush for over 130 yards.

Game Picks:

Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 / GB v PHI o/u 44.5 OVER 44.5 +155 (PARLAY)

Green Bay Packers Team Total over 20.5 +110

Over / Under 46.5 OVER +101

Philadelphia Eagles Team Total Rushing TDs o/u 1.5 OVER -115

Correct Score: Packers 24 - Eagles 27 +8000 *odds by BetMGM

Player Props:

Saquon Barkley Rush + Receiving Yards 125+ +110

Josh Jacobs Rush Yards o/u 68.5 OVER 68.5 -110

Jayden Reed Receptions 4+ -130

Dontayvion Wicks Receiving Yards o/u 40.5 OVER 40.5 -110

Brandon McManus o/u 1.5 Made FGs OVER 1.5 +100

Some flyers:

DeVonta Smith Anytime TD +175 (UPDATE: DeVonta limited in Practice Friday with "back tightness")

Kenneth Gainwell Anytime TD +550

Jordan Love Passing TDs 2+ +120

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards 30+ +155

*all odds provided by Bet365 unless otherwise noted

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