Looking ahead to Super Wild Card Weekend Pt. 5

We're going to dive into the Sunday slate of Wild Card Weekend and look at the statistical advantages for these two match ups. We're going to then unveil what our projection is for Commanders at Buccaneers.

Let's goooooo!

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Game 5:

Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, JAN-12 8:00PM ET

WSH +3 O/U 50 TB -3

TAMPA BAY, FL - Strangley enough we have another NFC match up that ook place in Week 1 of this season!!! That is very unique... Anyway, these teams really couldn't be any more different than the Week 1 match up. Jayden Daniels matured nearly every week we saw him and well, the Buccaneers were still trying to figure out their backfield leading to the the emergence of Bucky Irving. This should be a game that has us saying "been waiting all day for Sunday Night!" I would like to think because of playoffs we would see a slightly more defensive game than Week 1 but who would we be to bet an under. We'll find the right sides and what numbers tell us about round 2 of Commanders Bucs.

This is the cliched "Ol' Western Showdown of Two Gunslingers" but it's really the east... also formerly known as the "Gruden Bowl" look it up if you don't know why. These two QBs are going to be the stars of the show and Jayden Daniels will not only do it through the air to his guy Scary Terry [McLaurin] but, with his legs and that will cover a little more in the next section. Before we get to the 'Manders running game, let's talk about someone who is jsut coming off IR and got his feet wet in pad slapping last week, Austin Eckler... watch him catching passes out of the backfield! McLaurin will get a ton of targets and watch for Dan Quinn to steal a play from Todd Bowles and go to TE Zach Ertz in the Red Zone... just a thought. Remember... Jayden Daniels... rushing / scrambling / under duress... [TB leads league in QBPs at Home]

Tampa Bay Pass D @ Home	Washington Pass O on Road
- 114.5 YPG (23rd) - 6.3 Pass YPP (21st) - 15 Pass TDs allowed (30th) - 24 Sacks (12th) - 7.3% Sack rate% (13th) - 2.72 secs Opp. TTT - 134 QBPs (1st) - 40.5% QBP Rate%(2nd) - 2.54 secs TTP (2nd) - 0.87 secs Get-Off (26th) - 39.0% Blitz Rate% (1st) - 1074 YACatch (25th) - 3.7 yds separation (28th)	- 95.3 YPG (26th) - 6.4 Pass YPP (13th) - 12 Pass TDs (15th) - 24 Sacks Allowed (22nd) - 9.5% Sack Allowed% (30th) - 2.66 secs TTT (31th) - 89 QBPs Allowed (7th) - 30.2% QBP Rate% (8th) - 2.84 secs TTP (6th) - 27.4% Opp. Blitz% (14th) - 954 YACatch (16th) - 3.9 yds separation (3rd)

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This is where the Commanders can dominate. If they can rush the ball with either Brian Robinson Jr or Austin Eckler then that will open up Jayden Daniels to go deep to McLaurin but, this is about rushing... going back to Week 1, the Commanders could not rush the ball with their RBs but Daniels rushed for 88 yards in Week 1!!! Look for him to work some magic with his legs again but asking him for 80+ in a playoff game is.a lot. Certainly, I think the Bayou Bengal to run and run a lot. The Commanders will need to rely on their outside run which is not their forte. Running inside on the Tampa D and meeting Vita Vea will not end well. Check Our Projections for what the algorithm has learned since Week 1.

Tampa Bay Rush D @ Home	Washington Rush O on Road
- 60.5 YPG (17th) - 4.8 Rush YPP (25th) - 7 Rush TDs allowed (19th) - 24 10+ yds rushes allowed (12th) - 18.5% Run Stuff% (12th) - 2.50 RYAC/Att (1st) - 2.26 RYBC/Att (31st) - 41.7% Opp. Rush Inside% (7th) - 55.1% Opp. Rush Outside% (23rd) - 23.1% Light Box% (2nd) - 42.6% Stacked Box% (32nd)	– 59.2 YPG (13th) - 4.3 Rush YPP (16th) - 13 Rush TDs (5th) - 20 10+ yds rushes (28th) - 15.3% Run Stuffed% (14th) - 2.44 RYAC/Att (32nd) - 1.85 RYBC/Att (5th) - 49.2% Rush Inside% (10th) - 47.9% Rush Outside% (21st) - 60.2% Rush Opp. Light Box% (1st) - 14.4% Rush Opp. Stacked Box% (29th)

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It's "Shake 'N Bake" time!!! Baker yet again coming off a career year and arguably the highest of highs getting Mike Evans the ball on a clear victory formation play last Sunday. The Bucs locker room vibes could be higher if you've seen any of the social media coming out of Tampa this week. While Baker will have opportunities there is one match up we might as well assume will not be good! Marshon Lattimore is now a Commander (and if you're not familiar with him, get familiar) and he loves to get under Mike Evans' skin and ultimately lock him down. In 13 games Lattimore and Evans has faced off Evans has averaged 2.6 catches and 43.6 yards.... Yikes!! and a couple ripped off chains I think! Look out for Cade Otton, Jalen MacMillan, Sterling Shepard sighting even.

Tampa Bay Pass O @ Home	Washington Pass D on Road
- 139.4 YPG (1st) - 6.8 Pass YPP (13th) - 24 Pass TDs (1st) - 22 Sacks Allowed (19th) - 6.3% Sacks allowed rate% (15th) - 2.71 secs TTT (24th) - 97 QBPs (14th) - 26.2% QBP Rate% (4th) - 2.70 secs TTP (12th) - 27.8% Opp. Blitz Rate% (17th) - 1373 YACatch (3rd) - 3.5 yds separation (18th)	- 105.1 YPG (11th) - 7.0 Pass YPP (28th) - 13 Pass TDs allowed (20th) - 18 Sacks (22nd) - 6.7% Sack Rate% (11th) - 2.64 secs Opp. TTT (4th) - 81 QBPs (30th) - 30.0% QBP Rate% (24th) - 2.60 secs TTP (9th) - 0.78 secs Get-Off (4th) - 30.4% Blitz Rate% (10th) - 959 YACatch (9th) - 3.4 yds separation (11th)

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The Tampa Bay running game has matured before eyes since that Week 1 match up with. theCommanders. Rookie sensation Bucky Irving has burst on the scene and seemingly took the RB1 spot from Rachaad White. While theyboth carry the water Bucky is certainly their big play back. Bucky has a huge rushing yard total (o/u 90.5) which may be too high for me but, I do think he gets in the endzone and his Rush + Receiving Yards 100+ is definitely live. Another rushing prop that we took in Week 18 and cashed... is Baker Mayfield! Hisnumber right now is 18.5!!! The man had 68 yards in the must win against the Saints. Had 2 against the Panthers in Week 17 but they were ahead and it's Carolina, they weren't exactly putting pressure on Baker to run. Baker had 42 against Dallas Week 16 and 25 against the Chargers in Week 15. You know what all those teams had in common? They pressure the QB and when Bake gets pressured he either steps up and launches it 45+ down the field or escapes the pocket and runs for 10+, I see Washington playing right into that game plan, Baker Rush Yard Escalator.

Tampa Bay Rush O @ Home	Washington Rush D on Road
- 69.6 YPG (9th) - 4.8 Rush YPP (8th) - 6 Rush TDs (26th) - 36 10+ yds rushes (6th) - 15.4% Run Stuffed% (12th) - 3.35 RYAC/Att (4th) - 1.48 RYBC/Att (14th) - 42.9% Rush Inside% (23rd) - 53.4% Rush Outside% (12th) - 49.0% Rush Opp. Light% (12th) - 17.8% Rush Opp. Stacked Box% (24th)	- 70.8 YPG (26th) - 4.9 Rush YPP (31st) - 9 Rush TDs allowed (22nd) - 39 10+ yds rushes allowed (31st) - 15.5% Run Stuff% (22nd) - 2.47 RYAC/Att (2nd) - 2.42 YBC/Att (32nd) - 53.9% Opp. Rush Inside% (30th) - 43.7% Opp. Rush Outside% (3rd) - 56.7% Light Box% (29th) - 19.6% Stacked Box% (15th)

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Our Projections:

I am happy for the second straight Sunday Night we get the game of the weekend. Makes it easier to hear Carrie tell us we've been waiting all day. As said before I will actually have been waiting all day for this one. On Monday I wrote in my notebook " WSH v TB o50.5, shit alternate over 52.5!!!" This is going to be fun happy with either team winning but I am going with the experience and the Bucs.

Game Picks:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 -135

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Total over 27.5 +110

Over / Under 50.5 OVER -102

Correct Score: Commanders 27 - Buccaneers 30 +10000 *odds by BetMGM

Player Props:

Bucky Irving Rush + Receiving Yards 100+ -225 (put this in a parlay or go up to 125 +115)

Sterling Shepard Receptions 3+ +120

Austin Eckler Receiving Yards o/u 19.5 OVER 19.5 -115

Terry McLaurin Receptions o/u 5.5 OVER 5.5 +135

Baker Mayfield Rush Yards Escalator 20+ -110 | 30+ +210 | 40+ +400

Some flyers:

Baker Mayfield Passing TDs 3+ +225

Jayden Daniels Longest Completion o/u 36.5 OVER 36.5 -115

Baker Mayfield Anytime TD +400

Jayden Daniels 2+ Rush TDs +1200

*all odds provided by Bet365 unless otherwise noted

*all stats are courtesy of NFL+ Premium's NFL Pro ---> check it out here NFL Pro (requires subscription)