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NFC West Win Totals

Updated: Jan 9

We are teeming with excitement that the Kick Off game is tomorrow! What better way to going to jump into our NFC West Win Totals and which ones we're going to be investing in. We'll break down each division in the NFC using our analytics, formulas, and sources we're all familiar with.


The analysis, opinions, and selections are for entertainment purposes only and are not recommendations and not guaranteed. Odds are from BetMGM. As always best of luck! Football fans, let's ride!





NFC West

Yesterday we started out with what could be the toughest division in the AFC, the East. Today, we're going to explore what had been one of the toughest divisions in football just a few years ago. Since that 2021 season when the Rams, Cards, and 49ers all reached double digit wins, only the 49ers have managed to keep winning more than 10 games, while the rest of the division specifically, the Arizona Cardinals, have regressed.

In 2023 we did see a resurgence from the Rams primarily due to a healthy Matt Stafford and a breakout performance from rookie breakout Puka Nakua and a bruising running game led by Kyren Williams. Does McVay get the boys buzzin' again in LA? The Cardinals only got better in the offseason by adding a monster target for Kyler, while the Seahawks are ushering in a new era. An era without Pete Carroll and the 'Legion of Boom', what are we expecting out of the birds in Seattle? San Francisco has eclipsed 10+ wins the last 3 seasons even with off-season tumult and struggles maintaining consistency at key positions... cough cough, QB1. Do we think the 49ers can put aside the drama and make it 4 straight years reaching 10+ wins?


All of this and more, as we head west!





Arizona Cardinals 6.5 | over -160, under +135


The 2024 season is a bit of a rebuilding year with potential improvement. With Kyler Murray back at full strength, the offense should be dynamic, bolstered by new weapons and a rookie offensive tackle. The Cardinals will look to improve on their 2023 record by harnessing the potential of their key players, particularly Kyler Murray, a healthy James Conner, . They’ll need contributions from their draft picks and free-agent signings to make a significant impact.


Key games include tough divisional matchups and high-profile contests against contenders like Detroit visiting the desert Week 3, then the Cardinals will slip on down to South Beach to face the Dolphins Week 8. After catching the Miami flu, Cards head back home to welcome #1 overall pick Caleb Williams and the new look Bears. We'll be breaking down those games and more for the 2024 Cardinals campaign.


Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)

Wins

  • WK 4 - WSH: gave up 27.3 pts/gm 405 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ARI 31 - WSH 24

    • WSH avg 22.3pts/gm on the road in 2023, we see a small uptick in offensive production [Revenge Game for Kingsbury or Cards whichever juice you want to drink]

  • WK 7 - LAC: gave up 23.75 pts/gm, 364.3 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ARI 27 - LAC 20

    • LAC avg. 19 pts/gm on the road in 2023

  • WK 9 - CHI: gave up 24.4 pts/gm, 369.2 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ARI 24 - CHI 21

    • CHI only scored 17.8 pts/gm on the road in 2023, we expect an uptick but not enough to beat the Red Birds

  • WK 12 - @SEA: gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 370.0 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: ARI 21 - SEA 20

    • SEA only scored 22.3 pts/gm at home in 2023

    • ARI looking for revenge on SEA after going 0-2 against the Seahawks in 2023

  • WK 13 - @MIN: gave up 23.3 pts/gm, 353.9 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: ARI 28 - MIN 22

    • MIN only scored 19.25 pts/gm at home in 2023

  • WK 14 - SEA: gave up 23.4 pts/gm, 372.5 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ARI 26 - SEA 17

    • SEA scored 20.5 pts/gm on the road in 2023

  • WK 15 - NE: gave up 22.25 pts/gm, 290.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ARI 20 - NE 10

    • NE scored 15.875 pts/gm on the road in 2023

  • WK 16 - @CAR: gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 268.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: ARI 20 - CAR 19

    • Rock fight just going with the better QB


Losses

  • WK 1 - @BUF: held opp. to 17.0 pts/gm, 305.0 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: ARI 23 - BUF 27

    • juice will be flowing!

    • simulator thinks the Red BIrds keep it close but lose

  • WK 2 - LAR: gave up 23.8 pts/gm, 336.0 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ARI 24 - LAR 26

    • Rams scored 23.6 pts/gm on the road in 2023

    • Cardinals are going to be coming off an emotional loss in WK 1 and just come up short for their home opener

  • WK 3 - DET: gave up 24.67 pts/gm, 354.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: ARI 23 - DET 31

    • Lions scored 24.8 pts/gm on the road in 2023

  • WK 5 - @SF: held opp. to 20.5 pts/gm, 309.3 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: ARI 17 - SF 38

    • SF scored 27.6 pts/gm at home in 2023, blew the doors off in WK 4 2023, ARI 16 - SF 35

  • WK 6 - @GB: gave up 20.0 pts/gm, 320.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: ARI 19 - GB 23

    • ARI scored 15.78 pts/gm on the road and gave up 24.1 pts/gm

  • WK 8 - @MIA: held opp.17.3 pts/gm, 306.5 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: ARI 23 - MIA 33

    • MIA scored 31.8 pts/gm at home in 2023

    • this one is easy but, look at the OVER for the game when the line is made


Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)

  • WK 10 - NYJ: held opp. to 22.4 pts/gm, 298.5 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A

  • WK 17 - @LAR: gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 339.75 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A

  • WK 18 - SF: held opp. to 16.1 pts/gm, 316.2 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A


WK 11 - Bye


Our Win Total Pick: 6.5, OVER -160


c/o Caitlyn Epes / Arizona Cardinals


Los Angeles Rams 8.5 | over -155, under +130


Key to the Rams success will be Matthew Stafford’s health and the performance of Cooper Kupp, supported by 2nd year WR Puka Nucua and Kyrien Williams running the ball. The offense should benefit from an improved offensive line. On defense, upgrades to the front seven and added depth in the secondary are expected to enhance performance. Key games include divisional matchups and high-profile contests against the Lions in Detroit to kick off their season, and hosting Las Vegas, Philly, and Buffalo. Health and Sean McVay's brain will be critical for Rams' success in 2024.


Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)

Wins

  • WK 2 - @ARI: gave up 29.75 pts/gm, 368.4 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: LAR 26 - ARI 24

    • Rams scored 23.6 pts/gm on the road in 2023

    • Cardinals are going to be coming off an emotional loss in WK 1 and just come up short for their home opener

  • WK 8 - MIN: gave up 19.5 pts/gm, 314.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LAR 27 - MIN 22

    • MIN scored 21.1 pts/gm on the road in 2023

    • LAR scored 23.875 pts/gm at home in 2023

  • WK 9 - @SEA: gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 370.0 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: LAR 24 - SEA 23

    • SEA scored 22.3 pts/gm at home in 2023

  • WK 10 - MIA: gave up 29.0 pts/gm, 340.1 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LAR 28 - MIA 26

  • WK 11 - @NE: gave up 20.8 pts/gm, 311.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: LAR 23 - NE 16

  • WK 18 - SEA: gave up 23.4 pts/gm, 372.5 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LAR 26 - SEA 24


Losses

  • WK 3 - SF: held opp. to 16.1 pts/gm, 316.2 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LAR 24 - SF 27

    • WK 2 2023, LAR 23 - SF 30

    • early season gonna be close, SF has edge even in SoFi

  • WK 5 - GB: gave up 22.4 pts/gm, 363.7 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: LAR 17 - GB 23

    • GB scored 27.0 pts/gm on the road in 2023

    • WK 9 in 2023, GB 20 - LAR 3

      • Brett Rypien was QB, no Kyren Williams..

  • WK 15 - @SF: held opp. to 20.5 pts/gm, 309.3 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: LAR 16 - SF 29


Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)

  • WK 1 - @DET: gave up 21.9 pts/gm, 335.4 yds/gm iat home n 2023, including the playoffs | Projection: N/A (but we already like the over)

  • WK 4 - @CHI: held opp. to19.9 pts/gm, 273.5 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A

  • WK 7 - LV: gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 362.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A

  • WK 12 - PHI: held opp. to - pts/gm, - yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A

  • WK 13 - @NO: held opp. to - pts/gm, - yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A

  • WK 14 - BUF: gave up 21.0 pts/gm, 319.0 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A

  • WK 16 - @NYJ: held opp. to 19.5 pts/gm, 286.7 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A

  • WK 17 - ARI: gave up 24.1 pts/gm 344.4 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A


WK 6 - BYE


Our Win Total Pick: 8.5, OVER -155


Brevin Townsell / Los Angeles Rams


San Francisco 49ers 11.5 | over +105, under -120


The San Francisco 49ers are set for another standout campaign in 2024, riding the momentum of their recent success in the NFC. With rising star quarterback Brock Purdy leading a dynamic offense featuring Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and a dominant offensive line especially after settling the contract dispute with Trent Williams. Defensively, they remain one of the league's most formidable units. While their ultimate goal is a Super Bowl victory, a deep playoff run to the NFC Championship is a likely outcome, solidifying their status as one of the NFL's elite contenders.


Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)

Wins

  • WK 1 - NYJ: held opp. to 22.4 pts/gm, 298.5 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 2 - @MIN: gave up 22.4 pts/gm, 346.6 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 3 - @LAR: gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 339.75 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 4 - NE: gave up 22.25 pts/gm, 290.8 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 5 - ARI: gave up 24.1 pts/gm 344.4 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 6 - @SEA: gave up 23.9 pts/gm, 370.0 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 8 - DAL: gave up - pts/gm, - yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 10 - @TB: held opp. to - pts/gm, - yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 11 - SEA: gave up 23.4 pts/gm, 372.5 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 14 - CHI: held opp. to - pts/gm, - yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 15 - LAR: gave up 23.8 pts/gm, 336.0 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 18 - @ARI: gave up 29.75 pts/gm, 368.4 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection:  


Losses

  • WK 16 - @MIA: held opp.17.3 pts/gm, 306.5 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 10 - DET: held opp. to - pts/gm, - yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection:


Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)

  • WK 7 - KC: held opp. to 18.0 pts/gm, 317.9 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection: N/A

  • WK 12 - @GB: gave up 20.0 pts/gm, 320.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A

  • WK 13 - @BUF: held opp. to 17.0 pts/gm, 305.0 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A 



Our Win Total Pick: 11.5, UNDER -120




Seattle Seahawks 7.5 | over -140, under +115


The Seattle Seahawks are heading into the 2024 season with significant changes, including a new head coach, Mike Macdonald, following Pete Carroll’s departure. This transition is expected to bring growing pains as Macdonald, formerly the defensive coordinator of the Ravens, seeks to implement a fresh culture and revamp the defense, which struggled in 2023. The Seahawks face a tough schedule, including eight games against playoff teams from last season. While the offense, led by Geno Smith, remains potent with weapons like DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Kenneth Walker III, concerns about Smith’s durability and the team's defensive weaknesses loom large​ (PickDawgz)​ (Seattle Sports).


The team ranked last in first downs allowed on the ground in 2023, and Macdonald’s success in his first year may hinge on how well the Seahawks can address these issues​ (Predictem)​ (Seattle Sports). Despite these challenges, Seattle’s offense should keep them competitive, with games against weaker opponents offering opportunities for wins. Ultimately, the season is seen as a rebuilding phase, with most predictions pointing towards a record around 7-10​ (Predictem) ​(Seattle Sports).


Projections (Wins, Losses, Toss-Ups)

Wins

  • WK 1 - DEN: gave up 29.6 pts/gm, 424.75 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection:  

  • WK 2 - @NE: gave up 20.8 pts/gm, 311.1 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 5 - NYG: held opp. to - pts/gm, - yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection:


Losses

  • WK 3 - MIA: gave up 29.0 pts/gm, 340.1 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 4 - @DET: gave up 21.9 pts/gm, 335.4 yds/gm at home n 2023, including the playoffs | Projection:  

  • WK 6 - SF: held opp. to 16.1 pts/gm, 316.2 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 8 - BUF: gave up 21.0 pts/gm, 319.0 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 9 - LAR: gave up 23.8 pts/gm, 336.0 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 11 - @SF: held opp. to 20.5 pts/gm, 309.3 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 12 - ARI: gave up 24.1 pts/gm 344.4 yds/gm on the road in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 13 - @NYJ: held opp. to 19.5 pts/gm, 286.7 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 14 - @ARI: gave up 29.75 pts/gm, 368.4 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 15 - GB: GB: gave up 22.4 pts/gm, 363.7 yds/gm on the road in 2023  | Projection:  

  • WK 18 - @LAR: gave up 20.4 pts/gm, 339.75 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection:  


Toss-Ups (We will re-run simulations closer to the game and play individually)

  • WK 7 - @ATL: held opp. to - pts/gm, - yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection:

  • WK 16 - MIN: held opp. to - pts/gm, - yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A 

  • WK 17 - @CHI: held opp. to19.9 pts/gm, 273.5 yds/gm at home in 2023 | Projection: N/A 



Our Win Total Pick:  7.5, UNDER +115



That is our NFC West round up for win totals we'll be back for more so check us out!!


 



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