Super Wild Card Weekend Recap
- JP Sweeney
- Jan 15
- 7 min read
It was a great Super Wild Card Weekend! All but one of the games has a team winning by more than 2 scores. Out of the 6 games we saw 4 that were regular season match ups, 3 of the 4 went the way of the previous match up. The only one to flip the script was the Washington Commanders, their 4th kicker of the year DOINKS it in for the win over Baker and the Bucs. We'll break down the games and see how we did (YIKES not a solid start to the playoffs).
Game 1:
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
Saturday, JAN-11 4:30PM ET
LAC 12 O/U 42.5 (OVER)
HOU 32 (+3)
HOUSTON, TX - There is one, just one thing we need to put a point on for this game and it is the Houston Defense. They took Herbert for 4 INTs and 4 Sacks!!! Herbert looked worse than a Rookie QB playing in their first NFL game. This is now the second playoff game Herbert has completely "pooped the bed" and should be taken into consideration as we move into next season.
Texans decided to play their best football of the season when it mattered most. Was this just a "one week flash in the pan", was this just a bad LA performance? We will find out Divisional Saturday and we have some interesting trends to preview. Let's a take a look at how Our Projections turned out...
Our Projections:
Algorithm:
Los Angeles Chargers 23
Houston Texans 17
This was certainly not the result we were looking for and taking our first L of the playoffs. As mentioned above, just an anomalous game based off our season long algorithm for both these teams.
Game Picks:
Los Angeles Charges -3 (LOSS)
Los Angeles Chargers Team Total o20.5 (LOSS)
Correct Score: Texans 17 - Chargers 23 (LOSS)
Player Props:
Justin Herbert Rush Yards Escalator 20+ (LOSS) 30+ (LOSS) 40+ (LOSS)
Will Dissly Receptions 4+ (LOSS)
Joe Mixon Rush Yards o/u 70.5 UNDER (LOSS)
Game 2:
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, JAN-11 8:00PM ET
PIT 14 O/U 43.5 (UNDER)
BAL 28 (-10)
BALTIMORE, MD - Well, this game went about the way we expected it to be. Baltimore winning handily. However, the way in which Baltimore won was incredible! Not only did Derrick Henry just run through the Steelers Defense (like he did to them just 3 weeks earlier) so did Lamar!! The Ravens nearly hung 300 rush yards on the Steelers D, shit the Steelers had given up over 300 yards in the 1st Half (PIT 0 - BAL 21)! Thats when we knew that the game was in hand and all Pittsburgh's offense could do would be put any points on the board. It was pretty much cruise control in the 2nd Half from the Ravens offense, literally... handing the ball off and burning clock.
We'll take a look at how the algorithm did and how our Game Picks and Player Props ended up in Our Projections review.
Our Projections:
Algorithm:
Pittsburgh Steelers 20
Baltimore Ravens 29
Our model all year was all over the Ravens in situations similar to this and this past weekend was no exception. We were almost Locked On the Ravens score again for the second time all season. The model also projected the Steelers to score more points and like in recent weeks, the Steelers disappoint us and their fan base. We will turn to Divisional Weekend and get ready to preview, yet another regular season match up Ravens at Bills, stay tuned!
Game Picks:
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 & Over / Under 40.5 OVER (WIN)
Baltimore Ravens Team Total 27.5 OVER (WIN)
Over / Under 44 OVER (LOSS)
Correct Score: Steelers 20 - Ravens 27 (LOSS)
Player Props:
Lamar Jackson Rush Yard 50+ (WIN)
Rashod Bateman Receptions 4+ (LOSS)
Mark Andrews Receptions 5+ (LOSS)
Derrick Henry Rush Yards o/u 96.5 OVER (WIN)
Game 3:
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
Sunday, JAN-12 1:00PM ET
DEN 7 O/U 47 (UNDER)
BUF 31 (-8.5)
ORCHARD PARK, NY - The unexpected Denver Broncos season has come to an end at Highmark stadium. Bo Nix lit up the scoreboard on the Broncos 1st drive buuuuut, then the Bills D clamped and Denver didn't score again. The Bills proceeded to rattle off 31 straight points over the next 57 minutes of gameplay. Out of that 57 minutes of remaining game time the Bills held the ball for 41, yes 41 of those minutes. That suffocation allowed them to dictate the rest of the game. James Cook was able to run the ball very effectively and allowed the Bills to hold onto that ball and run it out. We'll take a look at Our Projections for this game and see how we faired.
Our Projections:
Algorithm:
Denver Broncos 24
Buffalo Bills 29
Our Buffalo model all year was very good, Locked On with correctly picking 2 games this year and also had 3 more within 3 points. Picking the Bills correctly or within margin of error nearly 40% of their games this season. The Broncos could not get it done for a few more point...
Game Picks:
Denver Broncos +8.5 (LOSS)
Denver Broncos Team Total over 20.5 (LOSS)
Over / Under 44 OVER (LOSS)
Correct Score: Broncos 23 - Bills 29 (LOSS)
Player Props:
Josh Allen Rush Yards 40+ (WIN)
Bo Nix Pass TDs 2+ (LOSS)
Bo Nix Rush Yards o/u26.5 OVER (LOSS)
Audric Estime Rush Yards o/u 20.5 OVER (SCRATCHED)
Flyers:
Von Miller Anytime Sack (LOSS)
Audric Estime Rush Yards 30+ (SCRATCHED)
Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD (LOSS)
Nate Adkins Anytime TD (LOSS)
Game 4:
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, JAN-12 4:30PM ET
GB 10 O/U 45.5 (UNDER)
PHI 22 (-4.5)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - Hurts returns to the field and does just enough to beat the lowly Packers. Eagles defense forces 3 INTs from Love and like other teams this weekend=, took the air out of the ball and let Saquon run all over the Packers team. We don't believe this is a sustainable formula for playoff football and could cost them a chance to play for the NFC Championship in 2 weeks...
From our write up last week on this game "Philly will win if they commit to the ground game and as a team rush for over 130 yards." The green birds ran for a combined 169 yards, recipe for success against the Packers. Mark one for the good guys.
Our Projections:
Algorithm:
Green Bay Packers 25
Philadelphia Eagles 27
Obviously we were way off on the Packers offensive contributions to this game and Love's 3 INTs did not help. We're going to have a little different model for the Divisional Weekend so keep an eye out for the review.
Game Picks:
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 & Over / Under 44.5 OVER (LOSS)
Green Bay Packers Team Total 20.5 OVER (LOSS)
Over / Under 46.5 OVER (LOSS)
Correct Score: Packers 24 - Eagles 27 (LOSS)
Player Props:
Saquon Barkley Rush + Receiving Yards 125+ (LOSS)
Josh Jacobs Rush Yards o/u68.5 OVER (WIN)
Jayden Reed Receptions 4+ (WIN)
Dontayvion Wicks Receiving Yards o/u40.5 OVER (LOSS)
Brandon McManus o/u1.5 Made FGs OVER (LOSS)
Flyers:
DeVonta Smith Anytime TD (LOSS)
Kenneth Gainwell Anytime TD (LOSS)
Jordan Love Passing TDs 2+ (LOSS)
Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards 30+ (WIN)
Game 5:
Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, JAN-12 8:00PM ET
TAMPA BAY, FL - This was the game of the weekend without question! Jayden Daniels is playing out of his mind and should not be counted out against the Detroit Lions in Divisional Weekend. Our points projection yet again just was flat wrong. We also though the experience would carry the Bucs onto the next round, again, WRONG! Have to give it up to the Commanders and their coaching staff for gutting out a win on the road in (seemingly) their 1st playoff game [1st post season win in 25 years]. We're going to have a hard time with the Divisional Weekend preview with the Commanders and the Lions!
Our Projections:
Algorithm:
Washington Commanders 28
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30
Our model loved both these teams throughout the regular season and we are sad to see one of them go. However, the team our algorithm liked more is moving on, the 'Manders. We will preview the Lions match up tomorrow.
Game Picks:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (LOSS)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Total 27.5 OVER (LOSS)
Over / Under 50.5 OVER (LOSS)
Correct Score: Commanders 27 - Buccaneers 30 (LOSS)
Player Props:
Bucky Irving Rush + Receiving Yards 100+ (LOSS)
Sterling Shepard Receptions 3+ (LOSS)
Austin Eckler Receiving Yards o/u19.5 OVER (WIN)
Terry McLaurin Receptions o/u5.5 OVER (WIN)
Baker Mayfield Rush Yards Escalator 20+ (WIN) 30+ (LOSS) 40+ (LOSS)
Flyers:
Baker Mayfield Passing TDs 3+ (LOSS)
Jayden Daniels Longest Completion o/u36.5 OVER (LOSS)
Baker Mayfield Anytime TD (LOSS)
Jayden Daniels 2+ Rush TDs (LOSS)
Game 6:
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams
Monday, JAN-13 8:15 PM ET
GLENDALE, AZ - The move from LA to Glendale seemingly invigorated the Rams and they played their assess off. Matthew Stafford was slingin' it and McVay was out coaching Kevin O'Connell at every turn. The Vikes looked just as flat Monday night as they did in the regular season finale two Sunday nights' prior. Turn's out Sam Darnold might just be the Same Old Sam Darnold, maybe his O-Line just sucked, maybe LA is playing for more than themselves and playing inspired ball. We're find out how we think they match up with the Eagles in Divisional Weekend but, before we do that let's look at Our Projections from the final game of Suuuper Wild Card Weekend.
Our Projections:
Algorithm:
Minnesota Vikings 9
Los Angeles Rams 27
My algorithm was very hot with the Vikings this year Locking On 3 times and 3 more games within 3 points. It is sad to see them go but we will just tune the model and watch for another rising team...maybe the Rams???
Game Picks:
Over / Under 47.5 OVER (LOSS)
Los Angeles Rams Team Total 23.5 OVER (WIN)
Minnesota Vikings Team Total 23.5 OVER (LOSS)
Correct Score: Vikings 27 - Rams 26 (LOSS)
Player Props:
Matthew Stafford Pass Attempts o/u 32.5 OVER (LOSS)
Matthew Stafford Pass Attempts 35+ (LOSS)
Sam Darnold Passing TDs 2+ (LOSS)
Matthew Stafford Passing TDs 2+ (WIN)
Justin Jefferson Receptions o/u 6.5 OVER 6.5 (LOSS)
Flyers:
Kyren Williams Anytime TD (WIN)
Demarcus Robinson Anytime TD (LOSS)
Darnold 2+ Pass TDs / Stafford 2+ TDs (LOSS)
Kyren Williams 2+ Anytime TDs (LOSS)
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